If exit polls on Bihar’s assembly elections are any indication, the Lok Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) may end up reprising its role as a spoiler in 2005.
The likely end of the Nitish Kumar regime as projected by most exit polls will give the LJP the satisfaction of having accomplished its mission, but at staggering cost in a state in which it has always struggled to be. an important actor.
The LJP lost in the 2005 assembly elections, but it helped decimate its main target at the time, the RJD, to pave the way for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) rule under Nitish Kumar.
Fifteen years later, the LJP has played a similar role with a different goal: the JD-U. Chirag Paswan’s strategy of praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attacking Prime Minister Nitish Kumar may not win many LJP seats, but his ability to erode votes appears to have reached his main goal: JD-U, as suggested by the LJP. exit polls.
In the October 2005 elections, the LJP under the late Ram Vilas Paswan had contested 204 of the 243 seats in the Bihar assembly, but was only able to win 10. However, it was glad to have played its role in the fall of the regime of the RJD.
“We have played our part to put an end to the Lalu Raj. We have accomplished our mission, ”said Ram Vilas Paswan, winning just 10 seats.
Click here for full coverage of the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections.
As a separate entity, the LJP’s rigorous campaign against the Lalu-Rabri regime directly assisted the NDA in several seats.
Statistics from 2005 showed that there were 12 seats in which the LJP finished second and 84 in which it finished third. What was significant was the percentage of votes that he cornered and that finally made the difference between the NDA and the UPA, contrary to popular perception.
In 85 seats, the LJP candidates obtained more than 10% of the vote, which in itself was vital in several seats. There were 33 seats where the LJP candidates obtained more than 20% of the vote, excluding the winning seats. Most of these were the seats where the LJP finished runner-up, relegating the RJD or Congress to third place.
Even in the seats where the LJP obtained less than 10 percent of the votes, the impact was perceptible, since the number of votes that the party obtained, which ranged between 2,000 and 10,000, was greater than the margin of defeat for the candidate. of the UPA.
In 2005, the LJP campaign led the RJD to lose up to 57 seats, while Congress and the NCP lost 13 seats and two seats. But this time around, the same division of votes may have worked in favor of the Grand Alliance to turn the NDA around and to no discernible benefit to the LJP.
On November 10, it will become clear how the LJP affected the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. The LJP’s strategy of going alone and particularly targeting the JD-U was seen as a double-edged sword that could harm it more than I might have expected as it hit a lot more than its weight.
Political observers say it did not help the LJP’s cause that many of its candidates this time were former leaders of the BJP and JD-U who were denied tickets by their parties.
“If the LJP damaged the JD-U but couldn’t win the seat, it was always likely that the beneficiary would be GA. If that happens, the AG’s account could increase significantly. If exit polls are any indication, the strategy appears to have backfired and perhaps the LJP overestimated itself depending on the players on loan. People also read the game plan and it served as a catalyst for Tejaswhi Prasad Yadav’s energetic campaign, which remained focused on unemployment and migration, for a decisive election, ”said the former director of the AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies.
.
