Shortly after the voting for the third and final phase of the Bihar assembly elections concludes on November 7 at night, TV channels will begin broadcasting predictions about the winner based on exit polls. Exit polls are based on the responses of people who have cast their vote. Pollsters, assuming voters have correctly disclosed their choice, predict the results long before the actual vote counting begins.
Predictions are known to be wrong on many occasions. During Bihar’s 2015 assembly elections, only one agency had managed to capture the mood in the state that voted overwhelmingly in favor of an alliance led by Prime Minister Nitish Kumar with his coming to power for the third consecutive term.
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Here’s a look at the exit polls and what happened in the past:
When will the results of the exit polls be published?
Voting in the remaining 78 seats in the last phase of Bihar’s assembly elections is expected to end at 6pm on November 7, according to the rules of the Election Commission of India. However, if voters queue outside polling stations beyond the scheduled hours, voting hours are generally extended.
How is data from exit polls collected?
Pollsters are typically located outside the polling booths every voting day and conduct a poll. They ask the people who have cast their vote about their choice of party in the fray. Assuming voters have answered correctly, such data is collected and collated across all cabins in the state, and predictions – that is, the expected proportion of seats each party will win – are broadcast shortly after the polls conclude and pollsters submit. the collected responses.
Also read: Why did BJP decide to support Nitish Kumar in Bihar?
Are Exit Poll Predictions Accurate?
Since the predictions are based on the assumption that voters have correctly disclosed their choice and also since only a limited number of people are questioned and not each and every voter, exit polls are wrong. several times, as in Bihar in 2015. assembly elections.
Why did the 2015 Bihar exit polls say?
In 2015, all pollsters except Axis APM were unable to accurately predict the outcome or seats won by each party. Axis APM published the findings on its website, but they were not broadcast by any television channel. The poll predicted 169-183 seats for the Grand Alliance and 58-70 for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Today’s Chanakya predicted a two-thirds majority for the NDA led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 144-166 seats. At night, the NDA count was about 60. He later admitted that he had made a mistake and tweeted an apology that read: “We sincerely apologize to all our friends and supporters for not being able to predict Bihar. Congratulations to the winning alliance ”. The agency did not attempt to explain why it was so misplaced.
While the NDTV television channel also predicted a BJP-led government in Bihar, the ABP-Nielsen exit poll predicted a Grand Alliance victory, but could not anticipate the extent of the success and the reduced count of the BJP. . The India Today-Cicero exit poll and two others predicted a photographic ending.
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