The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has managed to secure a majority of 125 in Bihar’s 243-member assembly. The percentage of votes for the two alliances is almost identical: 37.3% for the NDA and 37.2% for Mahagathbandhan (MGB). This is the smallest majority for a ruling alliance since the October 2005 elections, when the NDA managed to obtain 143 MLAs. The NDA and the Grand Alliance had won large majorities; 206 and 178, in the 2010 and 2015 elections. HT analysis shows that the 2020 elections could have been the closest since 1977 in the state.
The percentage of seats with closed contests is the highest this time
In what was a lengthy counting process, primarily as a result of an increase in the number of electronic voting machines and booths due to the Covid-19 pandemic, reports of thin margins kept coming in. An analysis of the final results shows that the participation of assembly electoral districts (CA) where the margins of victory were up to 2% of the polled votes or less, is the highest in these elections since 1977. 1977 is the period earliest for which this comparison is possible using the Trivedi Center for Political Data database. This analysis excludes ACs that were sculpted in Bihar to form the state of Jharkahnd in 2000. Not only is the percentage of ACs with lower margins of victory the highest in the 2020 surveys, but the percentage of ACs with margins of victory of victory higher than 20% of the votes are the lowest. The median margin of victory in the 2020 polls is 8.05%, the lowest since the October 2005 elections, when the median margin of victory was 7.56%, and the second lowest among all elections. to the assembly in Bihar since 1977.
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Undoubtedly, the October 2005 elections were much closer if the comparisons are made on the basis of the absolute number of votes. The number of Autonomous Communities that were decided by a margin of less than 500, 1000 and 2000 votes in the October 2005 elections is 10, 21 and 40. These numbers are 7, 11 and 23 respectively in the 2020 elections However, given that the number of votes obtained in different CC.AA. and between elections varies, these comparisons can tell us little about how close the competition was in a CC. The average number of votes per CA was 96,925 in the October 2005 elections. It has increased to 1.73,406 this time.
Both the NDA and the MGB lost in closed contests
Although the elections were closely contested this time, the alliances won and lost in a close contest. The NDA and MGB won 20 and 18 BC with a margin of victory of less than 2% of the polled votes. The MGB has a slightly higher win ratio in the over 20% margin of victory category, while the NDA has the highest win ratio in the 5% -10% margin of victory category.
Within the alliances, Congress and the JD (U) have a higher proportion of close victories than the RJD-Left and the BJP. Except for the BJP, the other three main parties (in order of number of seats won); The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) and Congress saw an increase in the proportion of close victories compared to the 2015 assembly elections. While the Communist Party of India Marxist Leninist (Liberation) won 12 BC this time, only had three MLAs at the last assembly. That is why it has been excluded from this comparison. To be sure, the 2015 elections were held in very different alliances compared to these elections. The ACs with the lowest and highest margins of victory are Hilsa (0.01%) and Agiaon (34.53%), where the JD (U) and the CPI-ML were victorious.
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