In the last elections, the alliance with JD (U) and Congress meant that RJD had to cede the majority of seats to its allies. As a result, it ended up winning just 20 out of 78 seats, although the alliance won 54 seats, with JD (U) getting 23 and Congress 11. RJD hopes to improve that count this time.
However, what would concern the party as much as the combined strength of BJP and JD (U) is the presence of two possible spoilers in these parts. One is the Jan Adhikar Party (Loktantrik) led by former RJD strongman Pappu Yadav, who wields influence in the Purnea belt. The other is Asaduddin Owai’s AIMIM alliance with BSP and RLSP.
While each of these parts alone may not be a major factor in Bihar, could their combined strength do enough to damage the prospects for the Mahagathbandhan? Reports from the ground suggest the alliance is not gaining much traction, but even a few thousand votes may be enough to play the spoiler. That is why RJD would hope that Congress can carry its weight at least in this phase.
While it may seem obvious that BJP would do worse in Muslim-dominated areas, which is not necessarily true. Even contending against the combined power of RJD and JD (U) in 2015, the party managed to win four of the 25 seats here with a significant Muslim presence, evidently due to a counter-consolidation of non-Muslim votes in their favor. Overall, the party won 20 seats in this part of the state last time. I would hope that the arithmetic advantage of having JD (U) as an ally this time outweighs any negative effects of anti-incumbency that comes with it.
JD (U) would also hope that what he loses among Muslims due to his alliance with the BJP is more than made up for by adding the votes of the saffron party to his own. That is, of course, as long as the transfer of votes is smooth.
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