But in the two months to opening day on January 20, soaring infections could add up to more than 8 million cases and 70,000 deaths, representing a potential 80% increase in infections and an increase in 29% in deaths, according to Reuters calculations.
The only ways to change the outcome, experts said, are for the outgoing administration of President Donald Trump to modify its strategy or for state governments to introduce stricter and more coordinated measures. The colder weather adds to the challenge.
“The epidemic is going to be worse than it was in the spring, and worse than it was for the common American,” said Gregg Gonsalves, a professor of epidemiology at Yale University and a health care activist.
Trump has shown less involvement in the White House coronavirus task force in recent weeks, as it focused on his reelection campaign and an effort to challenge votes in various states after the Nov. 3 election. .
Trump’s coronavirus task force has been replaced by a multitude of regional task forces, “which is probably the least efficient solution, but better than nothing,” said Greg Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics.
US states and cities this week announced a patchwork of new restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the virus.
A White House spokesperson said the president’s task force remains “focused on saving lives” and is “in constant contact with state and local jurisdictions and health care providers, and continues to promote common sense mitigation measures.” .
From an election night party inside the White House where guests were mostly unmasked, several important Trump allies, including Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, have tested positive for coronavirus.
Meanwhile, it seems less likely that Congress will pass significant additional fiscal stimulus before Biden takes office.
Infectious disease experts say the United States federal government should do much more right now.
“We could be trying to figure out how to support people to stay home” instead of going to work, Gonsalves said. “We could pay them to stay home, we could send masks to every American home.”
JUMP INFECTIONS
The first wave of the coronavirus in the spring hit large coastal cities and nursing homes, and a second spread to more rural states.
The third wave is spreading virtually uncontrollably across much of the United States, surpassing the 10 million cases reported this week and more than 125,000 new cases Wednesday.
The country could report between 8 million and 13 million more COVID-19 cases between now and the inauguration, according to Reuters calculations based on the daily case count as of early November and percentage growth trends.
For a graph on Coronavirus cases could explode on Opening Day Coronavirus cases could explode on Opening Day:
70,000 ADDITIONAL DEATHS OR MORE
At the current daily death rate, another 70,000 to 150,000 Americans may die between now and Opening Day, according to Reuters calculations. As of Wednesday, more than 243,000 deaths from COVID-19 were recorded in the United States.
For a chart on COVID deaths in the US through the January 20 opening.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has a similar estimated trend of just over 360,000 coronavirus deaths on January 20 with no change in terms of office, an increase of 117,000 from November 12.
ECONOMIC DRAG
Economists and analysts have been reluctant to calculate how the third wave of infection could affect the US economy if it continues unchecked, citing too many variables, from the possibility of fiscal stimulus to new lockdown measures.
The economy is likely to accelerate again next spring, many predicted, when a coronavirus vaccine is expected to be introduced, ushering in a new boom in consumer consumption.
However, between now and then, the tone is increasingly gloomy.
“The pace of the recovery is likely to get worse before it gets worse,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Thursday. Fiscal support has “largely dried up,” analysts wrote, reducing disposable income for the rest of the year.
If nothing changes between now and the presidential inauguration on January 20, “we could be in a very worrying situation, very alarming,” said Daco of Oxford.
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