Last week, Oxford University scientists hoped to report the results of late-stage trials of their COVID-19 vaccine by Christmas. Dr Andrew Pollard, an expert in pediatric infections and immunity at Oxford, said the research was slowed by low infection rates over the summer, but phase III trials are now accumulating the data needed to inform the results as they a new rise in the pandemic hits countries around the world. Oxford is developing its vaccine together with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca.
“I think we are getting closer, and it will definitely be before Christmas depending on the progress,” Pollard said in an interview with the BBC. Pollard discussed the progress in late-stage trials when Oxford published a study based on previous research that found the vaccine was well tolerated and produced a strong immune response in people over 70 years of age. This is important because vaccines often don’t work as well in older people, Pollard said. “The reason we are so delighted is that we see that immune responses look exactly the same, even in those over 70,” said Pollard.
The findings were based on a so-called phase II trial of 560 people, including 240 over the age of 70. Results of the peer-reviewed study were published Thursday in the Lancet, an international medical journal. Phase II vaccine trials provide important preliminary data, but they don’t test whether they ultimately prevent people from getting sick. Oxford and AstraZeneca are awaiting the results of phase III trials in thousands of people around the world to show whether their vaccine is safe and effective. Two other drug makers, Pfizer and Moderna, this week reported preliminary results from late-stage trials showing their COVID-19 vaccines were nearly 95% effective. Pollard said there is no competition between the various research teams, because multiple vaccines will be needed to control the global pandemic and allow life to return to normal.
Despite recent progress, Pollard said the world is still in the early stages of the effort to protect people from COVID-19. Even after the vaccines are approved by regulators, drug manufacturers and public health officials still face the task of producing billions of doses and administering them to people around the world, he said. Pollard, an amateur mountaineer, compared the task to the work involved in climbing a mountain. “I think we are still at the foot of that mountain in some way,” he said. “We have made the route to the base of the mountain, the long walk to get to the beginning. Now we have to present the vaccine data to regulators for review and approval of the first vaccines. And then we have that great effort to climb to the top where we have a large majority of those who are at risk vaccinated.
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