An eleventh candidate who ran at the eleventh hour has spiced Uttar Pradesh Rajya Sabha polls to win 10 seats. Things took a curious turn when an independent candidate backed by the Samajwadi Party submitted his nomination papers on Tuesday, causing a problem in the Bahujan Samaj Party, which was seeking a seat for its nominee.
If lawyer Prakash Bajaj had not submitted his papers at the last minute, all the candidates – 8 from the Bharatiya Janata Party and 1 from the SP and BSP each – would have been elected unopposed on 9 November. With 11 candidates in the fray, the BSP with only 18 MLAs in the assembly will have to seek additional votes to ensure its candidate’s victory. These may have to come from the spoils of the National Democratic Alliance of 17 surplus votes from the BJP and that Apna Dal left after securing the victory of 8 nominees.
The BSP has sent its national coordinator Ramji Gautam for the only position it is contesting.
The fact that the BJP had tried to nominate only 8 candidates for the elections had caused an uproar in Lucknow that the party awarded Mayawati a seat. With a little effort, the NDA could have easily managed to get another candidate for Rajya Sabha as it did last time in 2018 when the BJP secured the victory of a ninth candidate by defeating the BSP selection, Bhimrao Ambedkar.
That the Rajya Sabha polls occurred just before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as the BSP and the SP were preparing to test the waters for a statewide tie. The SP supported the BSP candidate with its surplus MLA, but the BJP succeeded in having an independent candidate elected.
This perceived bonhomie between the BSP and the BJP for the Rajya Sabha polls has raised questions about whether the two sides are preparing the ground ahead of the 2022 UP assembly elections.
The Samajwadi Party has officially made it clear that the BSP did not approach it before putting forward a candidate. SP MLC Udayveer Dhakre told News 18, “The BSP did not have any consultation with our party to present its candidate. The SP with 47 members in the Chamber has Professor Ram Gopal Yadav as its official candidate. The party will also try to secure a victory for the supported independent candidate. Certainly by bringing in an independent in the electoral battle, the SP has tried to disrupt the strategy of the rivals.
While the BSP has so far been silent on its arithmetic behind entering the Rajya Sabha contest, the BJP is protected in its position. The party says that with its given strength of 304 MLA at Vidhan Sabha, it could only secure the victory of eight candidates. The party has named union minister Hardeep Puri, Arun Singh, Haridwar Dubey, former UP DGP Brij Lal, Neeraj Shekhar, Geeta Shakya, BL Verma and Seema Dwivedi as its nominees.
To win the election, a candidate needs 37 first-preference votes. After allocating these many votes to the eight nominees, the BJP-led alliance will be left with 17 surplus votes. The ninth candidate would have fallen short by around 19 first-preference votes, even after accounting for 9 MLA from ally Apna Dal.
BJP and MLC Vice President of State Vijay Bahadur Pathak says: “We have put forward candidates depending on our strength. The party does not want to comment on speculation. We will now decide our voting strategy based on the given circumstances. “
It should be remembered that in 2018, when the BSP presented Bhimrao Ambedkar with an understanding with the SP, the BJP incorporated Anil Agarwal as an independent candidate.
In the intense electoral contest that followed, Agarwal won, defeating Ambedkar by second preference votes. That was the moment SP and BSP were heading for an alliance against the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
This time, if the eleventh candidate had not entered the race, BSP’s Gautam would have won unopposed. Therefore, technically, the BSP would not have required the votes of the BJP, a situation that would have allowed them to continue the friendly political struggle perceived in the public domain.
For political observers, the smooth approach of the BSP chief Mayawati towards the BJP, which is often tougher on parties like Congress and the SP, has been quite evident. From the moment Mayawati left the grand alliance with the Samajwadi Party after the 2019 elections, the BSP has not taken a strident political position against the state and central government on key issues.
By forcing an election, the SP is trying to get the NDA to come to the rescue of the BSP candidate with surplus votes.
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