Updated: November 3, 2020 9:19:14 pm
An Indian art teacher makes paintings of President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden on a sidewalk outside his art school that remains closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mumbai, India, Thursday, October 29, 2020 ( AP photo).
When do the polls open and close?
It varies from state to state. The earliest they open is at 6 am, and the last close is at 9 pm local time on November 3. India is 10½ to 13½ hours ahead, depending on where in the US you are looking. However, early voting has been open since mid-September, and by Monday night India time, more than 96 million Americans had already cast their votes, either in person or via ballots returned by mail, according to the US Elections Project
When will the votes be counted?
Unlike the Election Commission of India, there is no federal body in the US that conducts elections or calculates the results. Each state conducts elections according to its own rules. Although most states allow electronic methods, ballots are the norm nationwide. Before the count comes a stage called processing, which involves verifying signatures, verifying documentation, and perhaps even scanning the ballots. The vote counting is a separate and subsequent process.
Each state has its own date to begin voting in person or by mail, the deadline for receiving ballots by mail, processing the ballots, and tabulating the votes. To take two examples: in Arizona, mail-in ballots began on October 7, they will be accepted until Election Day, and the count began on October 20; In Ohio, processing began October 6, mail-in ballots can be received through November 13, but must be postmarked November 2 and counting will begin November 3.
Also in Explained: A Guide to Tracking 2020 U.S. Election Results
How and when will we know the winner?
The count is not officially finalized for weeks; in 2016, it took until December. What happens on election night is that the major television networks and the Associated Press “call” the election in favor of one of the candidates, a projection based on exit polls, interviews with voters and trends, a legitimate exercise and a necessity in the American System. Projections are not usually contested and the candidate who is projected to lose grants the choice.
This year, given the pandemic and the huge volumes of mail-in ballots, there is widespread fear that a clear winner will not emerge on November 3 or even the day after, unless a candidate wins outright.
What are the polls saying so far?
Biden has led the national and state polls, and is widely favored to win. But no poll has predicted that Trump will definitely lose. Nate Silver, perhaps the most influential of forecasters, reminded everyone Sunday that in his projection, the president has a 10% chance of retaining the White House, not zero. You could have a 2016 moment in the Electoral College again. Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania, which by some forecasts is the inflection point state, is 5 points: “solid but not spectacular,” according to Silver. Pennsylvania and Florida together will give Trump 49 Electoral College votes, a tally that Biden can beat only if he wins the remaining 4 draws (Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin) and does well in other states as well.
Plus, polling errors happen: all forecasters were wrong in 2016. And no one rules out the possibility that Trump is looking for some kind of “illegitimate” path to victory, although that scenario has many mind-boggling unknowns. 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
So is fraud expected?
Trump has long and repeatedly accused the Democratic Party of fraud. But he has never presented any evidence, and almost all commentators agree that voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States. Democrats and other Trump critics are convinced that he is raising the specter of fraud to set the stage for contesting the election result if he appears to be losing; in fact, Trump has refused to commit to accept the outcome if he does not win.
On the Democratic side, fears of voter intimidation and attempts to make it difficult for some groups to vote have been expressed. These include attempts to reduce the efficiency of the United States Postal Service by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, an acolyte of Trump; making ballot boxes scarce in some states, etc.
Are not some elections for seats in Congress also being held?
Yes. Thirty-five seats are up for re-election in the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority. Democrats think they have a good chance of taking control of the chamber, but most media organizations have described the situation as a disaster. Elections to the House of Representatives will be held in all 50 states, and Democrats are expected to maintain their majority. The ideal situation for Democrats will, of course, be to win both Congress and the Presidency, but even if Trump gets another four years, a double majority for Democrats in both the House and Senate will allow them to put significant controls on the Powers. of the president.
© The Indian Express (P) Ltd
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