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Washington, May 2 (IANS): As the United States struggles with the steady increase in coronavirus cases and deaths, a new study by the Minnesota-based Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) has said the ACOVID-19 virus can last from 18 to 24 months, especially since only 5 percent to 15 percent of the US population. USA you are probably infected right now.
Coronavirus cases increased to 1,070,032 with more than 63,000 deaths in the US. USA, According to Johns Hopkins University.
In the report titled “The Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned from the Pandemic Flu,” the researchers paint a picture of the pandemic and detail how it is behaving more like past flu pandemics than any other coronavirus until the date.
“States, territories and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst case scenario (which implies a second peak of cases in the fall of 2020), including the lack of availability of vaccines or collective immunity,” the report said.
Government agencies and healthcare organizations must develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for health workers when the incidence of disease increases.
“Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers to reinstate mitigation measures, to treat spikes of the disease when they occur,” the recommendations in the report said.
Risk communication messages from government officials should incorporate the concept that “this pandemic will not end soon and that people must be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of the disease in the next 2 years.”
“No one knows exactly how this virus will behave. But, based on what scientists have recorded so far and in previous influenza pandemics, the report illustrates some of the possibilities,” he said.
In Scenario One, the first wave of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 is followed by a series of smaller repetitive waves that occur during the summer and then consistently over a period of one to two years, gradually decreasing by some time. moment in 2021.
In the second scenario, the first wave of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more subsequent smaller waves in 2021.
“This pattern will require the reinvention of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to reduce the spread of infection and prevent health systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918 pandemic- 19, “said the report.
In the third scenario, the first wave of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 is followed by ongoing transmission “slow burn” and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern.
“Again, this pattern may vary somewhat geographically and may be influenced by the degree of mitigation measures implemented in various areas,” the report said.
“While this third pattern was not seen with previous influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19. This third scenario would likely not require reinstatement of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur,” he added. .
Regardless of the scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), the report says, “We must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with critical points emerging periodically in various geographic areas. “
As the pandemic decreases, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue to circulate in the human population and synchronize to a seasonal pattern with decreased severity over time, as with other less pathogenic coronaviruses, the report warned.
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