The unprecedented shutdown of Covid-19 briefly disrupted political activity, but politics as such did not stop. In 2020, dissent found a stronger voice than had been heard in the recent past, and discussions and ideology clashes grew more strident and bitter.
The year began with crowds in the streets against the divisive CAA and NRC, protests that ended in bloodshed in Delhi. The pandemic gripped her, but the government’s handling of the crisis divided politics once again. The Chinese aggression sparked a heated debate before India went back into electoral mode. The so-called “love jihad” laws and the tragic incident in Hathras sparked outrage and anger. And as the year progressed, thousands of people took to the streets again demanding the removal of the new agricultural laws.
2020 started and ends on a stormy note, and 2021 may not be any different.
The stalemate on farmers’ agitation continues, and it remains to be seen whether these protests will put other sectors as well in agitation mode against the government’s seemingly overbearing approach to issues of popular concern. Parliament’s budget session was able to witness – and reflect – the social and economic anxieties that had been suppressed under the restrictions of the pandemic.
The election of the Assembly in West Bengal and other states could bring important indications, and the launch of the Covid-19 vaccine could generate new controversies. As the year enters its second half, the roll of the battle for Uttar Pradesh in early 2022 will grow louder and more frantic.
Leaderless upheavals, fueled by online mobilization
The political and administrative movements of the government led by the BJP – the effective repeal of Article 370 and the approval of the triple talaq, the citizenship amendment and the laws of the agricultural sector – as well as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic have left exposed the social and economic situation. anxieties of large sectors of the population.
The protests against the CAA at the national level and ongoing farmer agitation on the Delhi borders, although directed against the central government, appear to have a form and nature of collective sources, and have reflected an ambivalence towards opposition political parties. established. The palpable lack of popular sentiment leadership in these two recent major upheavals contrasts with the anti-corruption movement during the UPA 2 regime, which had clear leadership.
This aspect, in fact, has been in evidence for some time: in the previous term of the Narendra Modi government, it was reflected in the spontaneous and largely leaderless Dalit protests that erupted in various parts of the country against the Court’s ruling. Supreme which diluted the SC / ST Atrocity Prevention Act. So the government responded quickly to defuse the crisis.
Once again, the amplification of the #MeToo speech was the result of a largely leaderless popular push that resulted in the resignation of a Union minister. However, where the anti-CAA and farmer protests differ is in their overt tenacity and willingness to play long-term.
While the ruling administration has sought to blame the opposition for these protests, the fact that the protests have managed to sustain themselves without the central support of the opposition political parties is significant. Established political institutions, both on the ruling and opposition sides, will assess this new trend, which will likely not only survive, but thrive on the proliferation of mobile phones with Internet access throughout the country.
The equally leaderless #BlackLivesMatter mobilization ahead of the US presidential elections indicated the global spread of the trend of improvised mobilization of communities and groups using mobile phones, to give collective expression to their frustration. As new tensions emerge in post-pandemic society around the world, it is likely that more will be seen everywhere.
📣 JOIN NOW 📣: The Telegram channel Explained Express
Task for the BJP: manage the narrative as the elections approach
2021 is going to be a crucial year for the BJP-led central government, which had prioritized its central ideological agenda (Article 370, Ram Temple, the triple talaq law and the CAA) over tackling the downturn in the economy, which had seen multiple quarters of declining growth rate even before the pandemic. The anguish caused by the pandemic has now invaded the economy and has the potential to nullify the political gains that the ruling administration hoped to achieve by pushing its ideological agenda. Negotiating the major socio-political challenges (the threat of growing inequality, social tensions such as farmer agitation, tensions in the federal structure as resource mobilization becomes a serious problem) exacerbated by the pandemic will test the temper of the BJP government in 2021.
Elections to the assembly will be held in the east (West Bengal and Assam) and the south (Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry) of the country in the first half of the new year, and each will have a degree of national importance.
West Bengal will be seen in the context of the BJP’s stellar performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and Assam will test the strength and appeal of the BJP in the northeast. Tamil Nadu will see its first election without the two leading figures, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa, who dominated its politics for decades; Kerala will demonstrate whether Congress can repeat its success in the Lok Sabha elections or whether the left has a chance to retain a degree of national importance. Kerala will also be a test for the BJP, which had pinned its hopes on the Sabarimala temple entrance issue, but has yet to see the dividends it hoped for.
When 2021 ends, the battle will move north and west, as political forces begin preparing for the Assembly elections in UP in early 2022, alongside Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
For the opposition, especially Cong and Rahul, a moment of reckoning
Election results in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have indicated some backlash against the BJP at the provincial level. At the national level, however, opposition parties have found themselves wanting, especially compared to the popular backlash seen in anti-CAA student protests and farmers’ agitation. With the numbers in Rajya Sabha turning more in favor of the BJP, the focus will remain on the strength and abilities of the Opposition.
The fight for a rebalancing of power within the Congress led by the Gandhi family will continue. The first push for introspection by a section of senior leaders in August 2019 has yet to fully develop. The party has bought time by promising an AICC session in early 2021. The result of the rotation in Congress has the potential to shape the course of opposition politics in 2021. It will decide whether Congress retains its relevance in the center of political opposition or invaded by ambitious regional leaders. The form the convulsions take in Congress will be inextricably linked to Rahul Gandhi’s political destiny.
Election results in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will also have an impact on Opposition politics at the national level. The scale of victory or defeat of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and MK Stalin’s DMK will determine the role that regional forces play in the national Opposition.
Beyond Borders: China, the US, and the World in Indian Politics
While these elections and the economic crisis will guarantee sufficient tension in domestic politics, 2021 may be a crucial year for the rebalancing of global power equations. President Joe Biden’s administration will have a very different view of America’s role in a variety of global issues, including climate change and international trade. Multiple sticking points in the relationship between the United States and China will affect nations around the world, including India. Handling the military standoff in LAC in eastern Ladakh will remain a key focus area for New Delhi in 2021; how this crisis unfolds will define the future of the bilateral relationship. Negotiating this impasse will require calibrations in India’s foreign policy stance vis-à-vis the US, Russia, and the immediate neighborhood, especially Nepal, as well.
The internal political stance of muscular nationalism of the BJP may influence how India deals with these sensitive issues, which have many more moving parts than India can control. In the past, the government has used surgical strikes against terror launch pads within Pakistan as a national political lever; It remains to be seen how he handles the confrontation of LAC and a belligerent Nepal in this context.
Potential for friction in the vaccine, census; key court cases lined up
The topic that will attract significant popular attention and could spark a political fight will be the Covid-19 vaccination campaign. With regulatory approval for one or more candidate vaccines in a few days, issues of access and costs will dominate discussions until 2021. Given the way the handling of migration during the blockade entered the electoral discourse of the Bihar Assembly, the vaccination campaign has the potential to unleash intense politicking during the upcoming elections.
The census is another administrative exercise that can spark political disputes. The storm that was building up over the NPR exercise that was scheduled to begin in April 2020 was dissipated by the pandemic, and the exercise was postponed indefinitely. With the end of the pandemic still uncertain, the question of the 2021 census remains at stake.
The budget year can always fuel discontent; the government will also have to navigate important cases in the Supreme Court, including constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir, and petitions against the CAA and agricultural laws.
.
