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These observations, where I look Real MadridHistory, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical things and other relevant thoughts, are now normal. All previous editions can be found here.
Real Madrid has an incredible pool of talented borrowers on the books. These players have stiff competition that serves as barriers to their return. Where do they stop? How would Mbappe, Haaland and Camavinga fit together? Below is a breakdown:
Achraf’s second season in Dortmund has been a strange one. He has offensively flashed a mile-high ceiling as he becomes a defensive sieve that teams exploit over and over again. Lucien Favre has played it mainly as a right winger, just ahead of Lucasz Piszczek in a 3-4-3. He is rarely in a position to cover the weak side, jogs on the defensive transition, and even when he is there, the opposite ends can rise above him for a header on the far post.
Favre posting Achraf on the right wing, in a higher position combined with Thorgan Hazard and Jadon Sancho, is one way to mask his defensive deficiencies. But when you play as the team winger as Pisczcek does, having Achraf as your safety net doesn’t give you much confidence on defense.
It does not accumulate. Achraf is too fast in transition not to be better than he is at covering the flanks. You can see the mental gears spinning in his brain sometimes. He sees the race behind him, he’s watching directly to him – and you have time to get there, and you simply choose not to. Under Zinedine Zidane, he was better defensively than offensively. (Under Zidane, you could see his offensive potential, but he didn’t have the confidence to take his marker and put a proper center like he did in Castilla. On the other hand, his defensive IQ was good, and he would run backwards when necessary All that is encouraging: his defense will probably improve in the future if he returns to Real Madrid).
Offensively, Achraf has been a giant. His assist numbers (10 overall, fourth in the league) are likely biased, as his xA ranks low and doesn’t throw many key passes or rank high on completed crosses. His teammates have taken risks. Most of Achraf’s damage will come from crosses. Only one player in the Champions League this season, Kostas Tsimikas, has put more crosses in the penalty area this season.
But its overloads, both lateral and extreme, are devastating. He has become a goal threat from his position. You can reach the end of the crosses or cut and shoot with any foot. Their arrivals in the last third are difficult to defend.
Achraf is 21 years old. Its rawness is still displayed offensively (although not as much as defensively). No one in the Bundesliga has their passes intercepted as much as Achraf (40 total). As a result, he lags behind in progressive passes. His dribbling, movement and crosses break lines; its vertical passage does not.
But some of those numbers are biased. Part of the problem with passing accuracy is that your position will dictate it. Achraf gets his passes selected, but he also tries many direct passes. Those he achieves are conducive to the team’s attack flow. Those who do not have a purpose:
Achraf has had two good enough years in Dortmund that the doors have been opened for him. You can stay there and call it home for years to come. If Zidane brings him back to Real Madrid, Achraf has no guarantee that he will have the same individual success.
But even Zidane may not be able to make a pitch strong enough for the Moroccan. He is not going to tell Achraf that he will return to start. The message will be clear: come back, become a major rotary player, be patient, and the future is yours, eventually (as long as you move forward). That scenario could be taken either way for a child who just wants to play. Carvajal has been immersed since the 2016-2017 season; but he got back into shape this season, and he’s at his best. It is a difficult place for Real Madrid and Achraf.
Mbappe doesn’t care about playing time like any other player on this list would. He fits in and fits perfectly in multiple ways: he’s versatile, can play anywhere in the top three, and Zidane loves his forwards who team up with midfielders without sacrificing their surgical ability to run from the shoulder of the defensive line in Un counterattack. Mbappe can play as a roving forward, or to the right as a non-traditional winger who can constantly cut in half space and use his spoiler as a start or decoy as the defense backs off. Will score goal cubes from any position. That last point only makes it an urgent signing if (and when) it is achievable.
There is a certain aura of inevitability that Kylian Mbappe is a Real Madrid player who is simply on loan in Paris. He flirts with Zidane and Real Madrid in much the same way that Eden Hazard did before joining. More recently, in February, Mbappe recalled a story about a surprise visit from Zidane when he was 14 years old. Zidane, the sports director of Real Madrid at the time, asked to see Kylian and take him to train:
“Zidane met us in the parking lot next to his car, and it was a really nice car, of course. We greeted each other and then he offered to take me out to the field to train. I was pointing to the front seat, like, “Go on, come on in.”
“But I froze and asked,” Should I take off my shoes? “
“Hahaha! I don’t know why I said that. But it was Zizou’s car!
“He thought that was really fun. He said, “Of course not, come on, come on in.”
“He took me to training camp, and I was thinking to myself, I’m in Zizou’s car.” I’m Kylian from Bondy. This is not real. I must still be sleeping on the plane.
“Sometimes even when you’re really living something, it feels like a dream.”
Mbappe has had its ups and downs with PSG management. He loves Zidane. However, it is naive to think that something is sealed. PSG will not make it easy. Its sports director Leonardo has publicly frowned on Zidane for speaking openly about his French striker. He will aggressively try to lure Mbappe into a new deal, and if he can’t, he’ll stick to it until the last possible second.
Don’t be so sure that PSG will sell it when your contract runs out. They are likely to survive the FFP regulations if they don’t charge for it. If they win the Champions League in Mbappe’s last year before he walks for free, that in itself is worth more than the price they’ll get for him. Isn’t that the reason why we “signed” these players to lift trophies? PSG is not a feeder club.
One thing to think about: if Mbappe and Achraf play together on the right, that’s not a ton of defensive coverage. Mbappe is not an aggressive attacker by nature, and his defensive pressure numbers are practically zero. It will probably make more sense with Carvajal if he plays to the right, or Casemiro and Valverde will have a lot of ground to cover.
Martin Odegaard creates opportunities in the final third to earn a living. His expected assists, 5.4, are second in the league only after Lionel Messi’s monster 10+. Odegaard has generated the third highest number of key passes in La Liga (45), the third largest number of passes in the last third (66) and the fifth largest number of progressive passes (220). He is one of the best players in Spain. You have to make room for someone like that, right?
Something on the list will have to give way for that to happen. Even if Real Madrid does not sign another midfielder, Fede has become an indispensable cog in Zidane’s scheme. If Luka Modric stays another year, Odegaard’s return is less likely.
Real Madrid has had key veterans for every position a borrower patiently resides in. They have gained time with two-year spells for Achraf, Odegaard, and Reguilon. But even after two years, little has opened. Marcelo, Modric and Carvajal are still close. Is the club ready to part ways with at least two of them to save a future cornerstone? A possible solution: simply extend the loan periods for another year. That could go either way. Kovacic, one of the Premier League’s best midfielders this season, got tired of waiting.
Modric’s contract expires in 2021. Can Real Madrid resist the urge to sign another star (Pogba) in midfield until then? If they can’t, they may have to extend this to a seven-year loan.
Eduardo Camavinga has been playing professional soccer for a total of (almost) two seasons. He played only seven times when he was 16 in his first season on the Rennes A-team, making him the youngest player to dress for the club. A year later, he became one of the most promising midfielders not only in his country, but in the entire continent, at the end point. He is good. He is linked with big clubs, including Real Madrid, for good reason.
Camavinga’s second season in the top flight has been a revelation. It has become an indispensable cog in team building, plunging deep into the center defenders to open space and drag the hopeful grips before evading them and breaking their line. It is pressure resistant, moves in good starting positions for its defenders and can dribble from a tight spot to find open players in transition. It is a good distributor, with room to improve your pace.
Some have doubts about his ability to be Casemiro’s backup. Part of that hysteria was fueled by Alvaro Benito’s comments on AS, where Benito stated that Camavinga is not a defensive specialist, nor does he have the positional understanding of a defensive midfielder. Benito argued that Real Madrid plays with too many players ahead of the ball, and requires someone in that anchor position who can provide more balance to midfield.
There is some truth to that. Camavinga is a player with an attack mentality. He reads the game as a central midfielder. Only six players in Ligue 1 were dribbled more this season, and playing for Real Madrid only increases their defensive deficiencies. But there is also a harshness to that criticism. Camavinga leads the league in attempted tackles, winning 58 of his 98 duels. 39 of those tackled came in their own defensive third. He is disciplined and covers the field. And again: he is 17 years old. Casemiro did not become truly positionally disciplined until this season. The growing pains will be there.
Camavinga’s biggest obstacle is one faced by practically all young players who come to Real Madrid: strong competition. The anchor role at Real Madrid is not profound, but it is cemented by a Casemiro, who rarely takes a breather. Zidane often chooses to change the scheme to a double pivot when Casemiro is unable to play, instead of replacing the Brazilian with a like-minded player. (Ironically, that might fit with Camavinga.) People expecting Camavinga to be in next season as the team’s defensive back midfielder will have to rethink their expectations. This could even be a signing and loan scenario if it happens. That can happen anyway if Rennes qualifies for the Champions League.
Sergio Reguilon has already exceeded his playing time last season, and has taken advantage of the increase in his minutes. He is probably the fittest left back in Spain (although both Marc Cucurella and José Gaya have a case).
The marriage with Sevilla this season has been excellent for its development. Julen Lopetegui uses his back like no one else in Spain. (Jesús Navas, the Seville right back, has the highest use of any person in the country. He leads the league in: pass attempts, passes to the penalty area, crosses to the penalty area and touches)
Reguilon doesn’t channel as much possession as Navas does, but he’s still central to much of Sevilla’s two-way game. He plays as the team’s left back, appearing in nearly every position in the bottom third, making relentless pinning, overlapping, and sometimes even popping up centrally to shoot out of the box. He returns to his position quickly when necessary.
Only three complete runners in La Liga (Cucurella, Carvajal, Navas) throw more key passes than Reguilon, who has improved offensively this season under Lopetegui.
“I have a lot to thank the boss for. Not only now, but throughout my life, ”Reguilon said in January.
“It gave me confidence last season, but especially this season, it gives me the confidence to demonstrate what I can do.
Reguilon has the same puzzle as Odegaard. Both expect Modric and Marcelo to withdraw from the club respectively. Will something move? Mendy is not going anywhere, and she shouldn’t be either. A Reguilon / Mendy tandem on the left side sounds juicy, but both Zidane and Reguilon would have to accept that role. If Real Madrid doesn’t see the urgent value in it, someone will.
Haaland continues to be a phenomenon of nature, with no clear signs of returning from being an offensive hulk to a mere human. He has nine Bundesliga goals in eight appearances of a 4.8 xG. It has been lethal. The case that it slows down implies a certain naivety that things will normalize and fall back to the average. He has nine goals from 19 shots, a slightly cooler figure from his previous eight of 12.
Haaland is this year’s Luka Jovic. (He’s better than last year’s Jovic, but the parallel lies in how efficient Jovic was in the Bundesliga and Europa League. Haaland is doing it at a higher level, and he was doing it in the Champions League before Dortmund. he will get over). But at what cost would Haaland come? Would Haaland even accept? He chose Dortmund because he knew he would have time to play. He has been pragmatic with his development and would probably not accept a reserve role. For him to arrive, Jovic would probably have to leave or be borrowed. It would be crazy to quit Jovic so early. Young players have shown that they can eventually come to Zidane’s plans, and Jovic was a Zidane signing.
Haaland is not a Zidane-type striker. (In clearest terms, he is not Karim Benzema). Jovic has suffered this year with regard to finding minutes because he is too traditional a forward. Haaland is not like Benzema. He is consistently the best player on the court, and when Dortmund defends, he leads a 4-5-1 block. He’ll go to large extensions of the game without getting involved before showing up to score. Benzema constantly seeks to connect the dots. What Haaland lacks in the link game, he makes up for, you know, scoring.
Zidane could attempt to unite Haaland and Benzema, and let Haaland’s elite off-ball movement feed on Benzema’s playing ability, but then one of the many creative players on Real Madrid’s roster would be euthanized. It would be difficult to see this movement materialize until one of Benzema or Jovic leaves.
(I would be surprised if Haaland is a Real Madrid player soon, but I would like to clarify how good he has been).
It has been a rollercoaster of a loan period at the Arsenal for Ceballos. His energy from the bench earlier this season was contagious. When Emery would take him off the bench in early fall, The Emirates would receive a jolt of energy. His touches were very sweet. It came out of tight spaces and provided frantic shots from outside the box. He fainted, was injured, and never recovered his recovery. Fans growled with his sometimes superfluous dribble.
Since Mikel Arteta took over Arsenal, Ceballos has finally found his way back to the team and rediscovered his enthusiasm. Arteta channels everything through the Spanish midfielder. By 90, Ceballos is the pass target 65.6 times, the most players on the team. The only player with the most touches for every 90 on the team is Callum Chambers.
Arteta has Ceballos playing as a defensive midfielder, albeit primarily a double pivot. This is a low-profile development that occurs in London: Ceballos is deployed as the team’s anchor. It is dropped between the central backs, is the main distributor and is ultra pressure resistant. One caveat: Premier League teams have yet to push him constantly and have taken him to the sword. Ceballos has done well in that role, but we are still waiting for a large sample size where the teams put more pressure on him. His defensive coverage is not great, although he works hard to push and chase.
“I saw Zidane in Valdebebas a few months ago when I was recovering from my injury and he said he saw my games with Arsenal,” Ceballos said last week.
“I have a good relationship with him and he always told me that we are similar players in the sense that I need to play very often to be in good condition.” He always told me that my future lies with Real Madrid and that I had to be patient because I would probably have a chance. ”
The kind of patience Zidane preached to Ceballos may not be something that appeals to a player who might have more minutes elsewhere.
(Two marginal players who were not on the list: Andriy Lunin and Jesus Vallejo. Lunin’s future could be the team’s backup goalkeeper next season. He has been bombarded with shots in the Second because Real Oviedo is a black hole to the defensive. Lunin has generally handled well, barring a few mistakes. Vallejo has a long way to go to get back to his Frankfurt level.)
