India’s Covid-19 Curve Beats US, Prepares to Overtake Brazil

India on Friday added the most Covid-19 cases of any other country, exceeded, on average, the number of new infections in the United States, and was poised to overtake Brazil over the weekend to become the country with the worst outbreak in the world. amid a furious second national wave that led to 92,961 new infections on Saturday, the highest since Sept. 17.

In the seven days to Friday, India recorded an average of 68,969 new cases per day. On the same day, the US recorded 65,753, while Brazil recorded 72,151 new cases per day over a period of one week. In Brazil, the outbreak appears to be slowing down and the number fell by about 0.92% on average during the week. In the US, cases are growing again, but the expansion (0.87%) is significantly slower than India’s rate of 4.24%.

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On Friday, India added 89,030 cases and an immediate daily comparison of Saturday’s figures with those of the United States and Brazil was not possible due to the time difference. At the current rate, India could well break the record set by the first peak shortly, even surpass the 100,000 daily cases mark.

This is not the first time that India has recorded the highest number of cases for any country in the world; At the peak of its first wave, it registered 99,181 cases on September 10. But this would ultimately be dwarfed by the US, which recorded 308,941 cases. at its worst on January 8. The highest Brazil has ever recorded is in the current wave, peaking at 97,586 on March 25.

All data for India comes from HT tracker. Data for the US and Brazil are from worldometers.info.

Experts say the trend reinforces the need for India to restrict activities and speed up the vaccination campaign. The problem is particularly serious as the number of doses administered in India covers only 4.57% of the population, compared to 7.57% in Brazil and 30.44% in the United States.

“I think there will be more cases this time than during the first wave; the increase has also been very strong compared to the first wave. We can only hope that the fatality remains the same, ”said Amit Singh, associate professor at the Infectious Diseases Research Center at the Indian Institute of Sciences in Bangalore.

“We are already in the middle of the second wave and we are not going to escape from it. With that being said, biased locks and aggressive enforcement of appropriate Covid behaviors in public such as masking, social distancing, meeting restrictions can help slow things down. What we really have to do is vaccinate everyone, and quickly, “he said, adding that the government must open the vaccination campaign for everyone.

The current surge in infections prompted the government to meet with state health officials on Friday, in particular to highlight the situation in 11 “states of grave concern” that contributed 90% of Covid-19 cases and 90%. , 5% of deaths in the previous 14 days. .

At more than 7% on Saturday, the country’s overall test positivity rate – the proportion of samples that test positive – has also risen dramatically, indicating that efforts to stay ahead of the virus could require more testing to minimize the number of positive cases. be missed.

This need is also evident when comparing the absolute test figures: the 1.02 million tests conducted in India on April 2 were slightly less than the 1.05 million performed on September 10, the day India recorded the peak of the first wave.

Government officials have identified the situation in Maharashtra (which accounted for 53.2% of cases on Saturday), along with Punjab and Chhattisgarh, as particularly concerning. Following a cabinet secretary meeting with top secretaries from all states on Friday.

With 9,108 cases, the capital of Maharashtra, Mumbai, surpassed the threshold of 9,000 on Saturday, the first of any city in India.

In the national capital, 3,567 new cases were registered on Saturday, slightly lower than the 3,594 registered on Friday, but the latest figures correspond to fewer tests. The positivity rate increased from 4.1% to 4.5%.

The government said the current wave is affecting more small towns, which could spread infections among people who may not have access to health infrastructure as easily as people in larger cities do. “Another worrying aspect noted was that Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities along with peri-urban areas have recorded recent increases in Covid cases; The spread of the infection from these areas to rural areas with weak health infrastructure that would overwhelm the local administration was also highlighted, ”the government said on Friday, referring to the meeting with the states.

Experts have urged the government to consider speeding up the vaccination process and opening it up to everyone. “Now, there are several other vaccines with proven safety and efficacy around the world that should be introduced. For example, the Pfizer vaccine has been shown to be safe and effective for children. Covaxin or Covishield data are not available in these age groups. Instead of waiting for it, the government should bring what is already established, ”Singh said.

On Friday, India administered 3.6 million doses of coronavirus vaccines, the most it has done so far. But experts fear that the pace is inappropriate, especially since the country has a large urban population and many of its cities have a high population density, factors that help the rapid transmission of Covid-19.

(With input from Anonna Dutt)