January 1, 2021 11:24:52 am
As a new year begins, there is reason to believe that the coronavirus epidemic in India is in steady, possibly irreversible decline. This is how the Covid-19 situation looked in India on the last day of 2020.
The daily number of Covid-19 cases detected in India since May 2020
India currently reports around 20,000 new infections every day. This number has been steadily decreasing for more than three months. The peak was reached on September 17 when 97,894 infections were detected in a single day. As can be seen from the graph, the journey down is a bit flatter than when the numbers were increasing. This is likely to get flatter as we go, which means that new cases won’t stop abruptly. Most likely, infections will continue to be detected for several months. Minor increases in daily figures are not ruled out, but India is unlikely to come close to peak figures. This is very different from the situation in the United States and many European countries, where the peak in the second and third waves was much higher than in the first.
Active Covid-19 Cases in India
Progression of active Covid-19 cases in India since May 2020
These are the patients who have not yet recovered. Not surprisingly, the trajectory of active cases is very similar to that of new cases. The greater the number of infections detected, the greater the active cases. On September 17, there were more than 10.17 lakh of active cases in the country, after which the decline began. As of now, around 2.57 lakh of patients are infected and have yet to recover. More than 96 percent of the people who contracted the infection have recovered so far.
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Deaths from Covid-19 in India
Deaths from Covid-19 in India
Ultimately, this will decide how severe the epidemic was. So far, about 1.5 lakh people have died from the disease in India. This is the third highest death toll in the world, after the United States and Brazil. But per million inhabitants, several other countries have registered many more deaths. India has seen around 110 deaths per million population, which is less than half the world average of around 233.
The number of coronavirus-related deaths reported daily across the country has followed a bell-like trajectory. On various days in August, September and October, more than 1,000 deaths were reported. This number has been reduced to less than 300 now. There has often been a considerable delay in reporting deaths. As a result, states used to pummel multi-day deaths and report them all together. This led to some unusual spikes on the chart, such as on June 16, when Maharashtra reported 1,409 deaths, and Delhi 437, both states added several previously unaccounted deaths in a data cleansing exercise. Similarly, Tamil Nadu reported 518 deaths on July 22 in a similar exercise.
Covid-19 in India: Daily Detections vs. Daily Recoveries
New Covid-19 infections versus recoveries in India
This was a much watched indicator when the numbers were increasing. This is because when daily detections start to remain consistently lower than the detection of new cases, it indicates the arrival of the peak and the subsequent decline of the epidemic. This is what started to happen after mid-September. In the more than three months since then, only 11 days have passed, when the detection of new cases exceeded recoveries. More recoveries meant a steady decline in active cases.
Covid-19 Testing in India
Number of Samples Tested for Covid-19 Every Day in India Since May 2020
These were the most crucial in containing the spread of the virus. During the first weeks of the outbreak, India seemed woefully prepared to carry out an adequate number of tests. Initially, only one laboratory, the National Institute of Virology in Pune, began to analyze samples. As the need for testing increased dramatically, at one point there was a danger that India would run out of test kits, chemicals, and reagents within a couple of weeks. But after initial setbacks, testing capabilities increased rapidly and many more laboratories, both government and private, began testing. New test kits were developed that could give faster results. From a few hundred tests a day in March and April, India began testing more than 10 lakhs of samples a day in late August. On some occasions, this number touched almost 15 lakh. More than 1,500 laboratories across the country are now dedicated to analyzing samples. Although there have been days of low testing, sometimes as low as 7 to 8 lakh per day, on most occasions since September India has been consistently testing more than 10 lakh of samples per day.
Covid-19 in India: growth rate and doubling time
These used to be very important indicators at one point, but now they have become irrelevant. In the first few months, India had experienced a case growth rate of more than 6 percent per day and a doubling time of less than 10 days. That explains the exponential increase in the number of cases. But as the baseline broadened, the growth rate began to decline, as expected. Consequently, the doubling time increased. Right now, India’s cases are growing at less than 0.2 percent per day, while the doubling time has increased to almost a year.
States with the highest number of Covid-19 cases
States that have reported peak deaths due to Covid-19
States that have tested the most samples for Covid-19
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