How the ‘new’ J&K voted in their first election

An analysis of voting patterns in the recently concluded District Development Council (DDC) elections in J&K reveals a sharp divide, with the BJP barely present in the Valley and the seven-party Gupkar alliance almost as marginalized in the southern districts. of Jammu, Kathua and Udhampur, although less in Samba. The northern parts of the Jammu region, consisting mainly of districts where no religious community has an overwhelming majority, were the ones that saw something of a real competition.

The three seats won by the BJP in the Kashmir region, one in each of Bandipur, Pulwama and Srinagar districts, could suggest that the party has made a breakthrough in the region long considered a no-go zone for it. , but a closer look disproves this first. reading. The BJP’s share of votes in the region is only 3.3% despite having contested 102 of the 138 seats for which the count was made. In fact, of the three seats it won, Tulail in Bandipur district and Khanmoh-II in Srinagar had neither of the Gupkar alliance partners in dispute and Kakapora-II’s seat in Pulwama saw NC and PDP compete. . As a result, the BJP won by 14 votes, although the combined votes of the two constituents of the Gupkar alliance were 174 votes higher.

Similarly, while NC boasts of having won 25 seats in the Jammu region and thus is a truly pan-J&K party that has some merit, what it was covering up is the fact that only two of these seats were in the southern part of Jammu. The percentage of votes for the Gupkar alliance in Kathua district was only 0.8%, in Udhampur 0.8% and in Jammu district 9.1%.

BJP’s dominance in the Jammu region also meant that its overall vote share was a respectable 24.6%, up from 22.9% for the Gupkar alliance. However, this was largely due to the fact that more than two-thirds of all votes cast in these elections (19.8 lakh from 28.9 lakh) were from the Jammu region, which registered a higher turnout than in Kashmir.

The percentage of votes also shows to what extent the PPD has declined even within the Kashmir region and the decline of Congress in the Jammu region. The PDP vote percentage of 7.3% in the northern parts of Kashmir was even lower than what Sajjad Lone’s JK People’s Conference was able to get (8.1%), reducing it to third place within the alliance although won more seats (10 to 8) than JKPC. Similarly, Congress went blank in the four southern districts of the Jammu region – Jammu, Kathua, Udhampur, and Samba – and its 14.2% vote share in these parts would be a concern for a party that does not long time competitive with the BJP. and the Panther Party in these districts.

Another striking feature is the unusually high vote share won by independents in Kashmir. The independents obtained 41.8% of the votes in Kashmir and 44.3% in the northern districts. While independents tend to be more prominent in local body elections than in assemblies or Lok Sabha polls, these are high numbers by any standards.