Health experts have said that there may not be a second Covid-19 spike in the country, and even if it does occur, it is unlikely to be as strong as the first.
The comments come as the country’s number of Covid-19 cases surpassed the one crore mark, although the number of daily cases and daily deaths has steadily declined.
Noted virologist Dr. Shahid Jameel said India’s curve for daily cases is on a downward slope from a peak in mid-September.
“Right now, we are receiving about 25,500 cases a day compared to more than 93,000 cases a day in mid-September. I think the worst is over. But there will be small spikes in the future, as we witnessed in late November.” said. said.
“I don’t think there will be a second peak as we have been through the holiday season (from Dussehra to Diwali) and a state election without a significant jump. What is the reason for this? If we go through the second national serosurvey, the cases likely were 16 times more confirmed cases. By that factor, India would have 160 million cases now, “he told PTI.
There may now be more than 300 to 400 million infections in the country, Jameel said.
“For that reason, we are seeing that a large part of the population is protected and the transmission of the virus is interrupted,” he said.
“Unexposed and susceptible people will remain infected. If immunity lasts a year or less, we may have small spikes at regular intervals over the next several years. Good vaccine coverage will control this effectively,” he said.
When asked about a possible second Covid-19 spike, prominent clinical scientist Dr. Gagandeep Kang opined that transmission will not be as fast as it was first seen and that the spike will not be as high.
“I don’t think the exposure is enough to say that we have herd immunity and we won’t have to worry about that again, but I think it’s enough to make sure we have some level of protection so that the transmission won’t be as fast as the first one was seen. time and the peak won’t be that high either, “he said.
“The problem has not gone away, it will not go away with herd immunity, but I don’t think we will necessarily see second-highest peaks as seen in the West,” Kang said.
Dr KK Agarwal, an eminent cardiologist, said that there are still 30 to 40 percent of the population in India that has not been infected by Covid-19.
He said that India, Argentina and Poland are the three countries among the 15 nations that have the highest number of Covid cases that do not show a second peak.
“In all likelihood, India may not have a second peak, and if the second peak comes, it will come only because of the new 501 variant. Two of them have been described, one in southern England and one in South Africa.
“If you don’t get that strain, there won’t be a second peak. If India starts its vaccination program at the end of this month and vaccinates about 30 million people, we should be able to get this disease under control by March 25.” “Agarwal told PTI.
However, if there is a second wave, he said, then it would be a new variant of the virus that will mean more cases but lower mortality and the second peak will help build herd immunity.
When asked if the worst was over for India, Dr. Samiran Panda, Head of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases at the Indian Council for Medical Research, said that the epidemiological curve has lowered for some states, while there is fluctuation for others.
“In more states, we have seen effective control, while in some of the states we have to be vigilant and vigilant. The state scenarios are different from each other,” Panda told PTI.
India crossed the grim milestone of one million Covid-19 cases on Saturday, adding 10 lakh of infections in nearly a month, even as the spread of the virus slowed and recoveries surged to more than 95.50 lakh, according to data from the Ministry of Health. Union Health.
Data from the Ministry of Health updated at 8 a.m. on Saturday showed that the total number of cases rose to 1,00,04,599 and the death toll to 1,45,136 and that the virus claimed 347 more lives in a 24-hour span. .
India reported its first case of Covid-19 323 days ago, on January 30 in Kerala, while the first death was reported on March 10 in Karnataka.
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