If New Zealand also sweeps Pakistan, India will need at least four wins in eight Tests against Australia and England.
There’s a new No. 1 test side in town. For the first time in their history, New Zealand sits atop the ICC Test leaderboard after finishing a clean series sweep against the West Indies with back-to-back inning wins.
In the immediate aftermath of their series win, there was some confusion as to whether New Zealand shares the top spot with Australia. The ICC ranking page showed them at the top with 116 points, but it was last updated on December 13, a day before they concluded the second test against the West Indies in the basin reserve in Wellington. If you used the prediction tool on the ICC website to fuel a 2-0 win in New Zealand’s series against the West Indies, it took them two points more than Australia.
Expect the ICC website to officially announce New Zealand as the new No. 1 team later in the day, which will be an achievement to savor for a team that can’t play as much test cricket as the Big Three do. As Trent Boult said, this was the result of the good work they started to do in 2013 under the captaincy of Brendon McCullum, followed by Kane Williamson’s team fine-tuning the attack mechanisms in place.
Since December 2013, New Zealand has won 22 events at home and lost only three, a mastery of its own conditions second only to India’s. During the same period, they have won away series in the West Indies and Zimbabwe and in the United Arab Emirates against Pakistan, and drew in England, Sri Lanka and in another series against Pakistan in the United Arab Emirates. The fact that they have toured only 10 times and played only 26 events away from home during this period is indicative of how unappealing they are commercially and therefore have limited opportunities.
This tenure at the top of the standings might not last if Australia dominate India in the next series at home, but New Zealand now has another realistic shot at a test crown. The two victories over the West Indies brought them to 300 points from four series in the current World Test Championship cycle. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in the summer, they will end their cycle with 420 points from five series, leaving India needing five victories from their last eight Tests to deny New Zealand a World Test spot. . The championship final will be played at Lord’s in the English summer of 2021.
In a non-pandemic world, New Zealand would also have had to go and score points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the classification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points . contested. Or, in other words, points per series played. If New Zealand wins its two events against Pakistan, it will end up with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points contested.
By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finish their series against Australia and England, they will have contested six series or 720 points. They will need to exceed 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points contested. Each of your remaining tests won will now be worth 30 points, and the draws will give you 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will take them away from New Zealand.
Australia remains the favorite to reach the final with 296 points from just three series played and a home series against India to follow. Their tour of South Africa has yet to be announced, but even if they go ahead, Australia will need 125 points from the two series ahead to secure a spot in the final. If the South African tour does not progress, two victories in the next home series against India will seal them a place in the Lord’s final.
Sidharth Monga is assistant editor at ESPNcricinfo
.
