India has a problem the size of China in Nepal, but must build on the current momentum

In a recent interview with The Hindu Foreign Minister S Jaishankar referred to the enormity of the challenge facing India from a rising China that has launched massive economic and influence operations through trade and connectivity projects to win friends and win the favor of India’s closest neighbors, Strategic Backyard. Jaishankar’s comments reveal a tacit admission that India has long taken the relationship with the nations in its mainland neighborhood and the Indian Ocean region for granted.

China has not dropped this ball, and Beijing’s growing activism through a mix of checkbook diplomacy and political interference has worried India and the defense. While China has set about reshaping the regional and even international order, exerting an intense gravitational pull on the smaller states on the periphery of India, India has remained complacent and isolated. That is changing now.

As Jaishankar told Suhasini Haidar in the interview, “China today … is impacting all regions of the world on connectivity trade, and therefore the South Asia region cannot be waterproof, it cannot be isolated from the rest of the world. When I see global changes, I can’t say, you know, I don’t like these global changes. I must prepare and be competitive myself. Obviously, I should improve my connectivity, my trade, my education, my medical trips, my institutional ties. And that’s precisely what I’m doing. “

Nowhere is this competition for influence evident than in Nepal, whose foreign policies lean significantly towards China despite the fact that India shares an open border and a multidimensional bond that spans millennia in history, culture, religion, tradition, religion, politics, people to people. and socio-economic commitments. However, it is China that is making deep strides, gaining favor with its politics and government, bringing Nepal into its orbit, and India is receiving the tip end. Obviously this has not happened in a day, but China’s growing footprint and a series of infrastructure projects with Nepal remove the buffer zone and bring multiple strategic and security threats to India.

Like any other small state between two giants, Nepal seeks to capitalize on both by playing against each other, but Kathmandu may find the tightrope walk untenable, mainly because China is not a rule-taker, but a rule-maker. It will come with large investments, but your generosity will carry a label of influence that Nepal will not be able to ignore.

Let’s cite an example. The recent deterioration in Nepal’s relationship with India was centered on New Delhi’s road construction activities. India’s inauguration of the Dharchula-Lipulekh highway in the territory over which it exercises sovereign control provoked so much anger from the government of KP Sharma Oli that Kathmandu drew up a new map and added territory under Indian control as its own. and validated the cartographic aggression through its Parliament. Meanwhile, we were bombarded with a torrent of Nepalese nationalism and anger at India on its streets.

Meanwhile, credible reports emerged from multiple sources that China is constantly invading Nepalese territory. News agency AND ME reported in June this year, citing a report prepared by the Nepalese Ministry of Agriculture survey department, that China has invaded 10 places comprising approximately 33 hectares of Nepalese land, by diverting the flow of rivers that act as a boundary. natural.

According to the report, “A total of 10 hectares of land have been invaded in Humla district when Chinese construction works diverted the Bagdare Khola River and the Karnali River. Six hectares of Nepalese land have been invaded in the Rasuwa district as construction work in Tibet brought diversions in Sinjen, Bhurjuk and Jambu Khola. ” The document apparently warned that Nepal would lose more land if proper measures are not taken in time.

A corroboration of the fact that China is devouring Nepalese villages under the guise of road construction works came from opposition leader Jivan Bahadur Shahi, a member of the Nepal Congress Party, who revealed that China has started construction activities. in the invaded lands and is even “preventing trucks loaded with food destined for the population of the Humla district”, and Chinese security personnel are driving the Nepalese out of the area. Surprisingly, the Oli government, which struck India with hammer and tongs, denied all reports of Chinese invasion despite public protests.

China obviously maintains that the areas in question are under its jurisdiction, but the development is a test case of Chinese expansionism and its mode of operation, where it buys or intimidates smaller states into silence. Nepalese Prime Minister Oli, who has survived inter-party factionalism and political turmoil thanks to political interference from China and the Beijing-negotiated peace between the Oli and Prachanda factions of the Nepalese Communist Party, knows not to upset the Chinese. .

Beijing has increased its investments in Nepal, pledging nearly $ 500 million (€ 436.9 million) in financial aid when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Nepal last year. In the current fiscal year, more than 90 percent of foreign direct investment in Nepal comes from China, and millions of yuan have been invested in hydropower and infrastructure projects. A Tibet-Nepal trans-Himalayan rail link is also on the anvil and China has given Nepal access to its sea and land ports to reduce Kathmandu’s dependence on Indian ports for trade.

But Chinese investments come with conditions. The Nepalese media have been warned not to publish articles that hurt Chinese “sensibilities”. Xi, the first Chinese president to visit Nepal in 22 years, after meeting with Oli last year warned that “anyone who tries to divide China in any part of the country will end up with crushed bodies and broken bones … and whatever external forces that support such attempts. ” dividing China will be regarded by the Chinese people as a chimera. ” – a reference to pro-Dalai Lama Tibetans residing in Nepal. As a gateway to the Tibet Autonomous Region, Beijing wants Kathmandu to prevent Tibetans from using Nepal as a transit point when visiting the Dalai Lama in India.

Nepal also wishes to maintain its relationship with India, mindful of the fact that it cannot be seen to lean entirely within the Chinese sphere of influence while sharing a close geographic space with India.

In recent weeks there has been a thaw attempt fueled by the determination on both sides to move forward despite differences on the question of limits. India sent its spy agency chief, army chief and foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla on back-to-back visits to Nepal.

Shringla’s visit, in particular, drew a positive response from Kathmandu. The foreign secretary, who is of Sikkimee descent and is fluent in Nepali, impressed the audience at the Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA) in Kathmandu during his visit last month. He made a “candid review” of the bilateral relationship with Nepal during his interaction with Oli and held a series of high-level meetings with bureaucrats, representatives of the Nepalese Congress, Madhesi parties, delivered more than 2,000 vials of the antiviral Remdesivir to Nepal and went to the Gorkha district and inaugurated three schools that have been established with the help of India.

He also told the audience during his AIDIA speech that “the development and modernization of India are incomplete and are intrinsically and symbiotically linked to the development and modernization of neighboring countries like Nepal.” Shringla’s charm offensive apparently translated into some results when reports surfaced that Kathmandu finally gave the green signal to India’s Konkan Railway Corporation Limited to carry out a Detailed Project Report (DPR) to connect Kathmandu with the train station. from Raxaul in India, Indian media reported citing locals. media in Nepal. The total length of the railway line is expected to be 136 km which will be built at a cost of approximately 3 trillion Nepalese rupees.

While this is a positive sign, the task is ready for India. Oli faces renewed pressure at home due to political instability and the return of factions in the ruling Communist Party. The Nepalese prime minister recently called an all-party meeting to avoid internal party pressure on him to resign and mitigate a new challenge: anti-federalist and pro-monarchy demonstrations in different parts of Nepal by rioters marching in the streets of Kathmandu. , demanding the scrapping of the federal system and the return of the king to what they chanted “save the country.”

The meeting, however, ended badly for Oli. The opposition criticized him for his inept leadership Amid political uncertainties in Kathmandu that may further mature the ground for Chinese political activism, the upcoming visit of Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali this month should further melt the ice, But the scale and nature of the Chinese challenge in Nepal will not be mitigated by a few visits. To maintain its influence, India must quickly deliver on projects and extend strategic altruism to Nepal. India cannot afford a pause or a fall in the trajectory of bilateral relations.