Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to drop 7% this year compared to 2019, but the world will still be heading for a temperature increase of more than 3 degrees C this century.
But an ecological recovery from the pandemic with investments in sectors that will help curb CO2 emissions may put the world on a path of 2 degrees C rise as defined in the Paris Agreement targets, the Report on the 2020 emissions gap.
For the Covid-19 recovery from the slowdown, governments are spending on an unprecedented scale, according to the report, currently amounting to about $ 12 trillion globally, or 12% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). in 2020. For G20 members, fiscal spending amounts to around 15% of GDP on average by 2020. However, for middle-income and developing countries, spending is less than 6% of GDP.
Most governments have focused on funding rescue measures to restart businesses and jobs in their immediate economic response to Covid-19, and only a few include conditions that encourage companies to decarbonize, according to the report.
India has allocated around 10.1% of 2019 GDP for Covid-19 rescue and recovery measures, according to the data-driven report from the Oxford Recovery Project, which has an overview of rescue and recovery measures. total tax of G20 members. But the data shows that most of India’s recovery measures have high carbon effects.
There are large disparities in fiscal spending around the world. Fiscal spending for some G20 members is as high as 40% and as low as 1.7% for some others. France, Germany, South Korea and the UK have some of the largest low-carbon investments.
The annual report released by the United Nations Environment Program found that the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 due to Covid-19 is likely significantly greater than the 1.2% reduction during the global financial crisis in the late 2000s.
But, 2020 is currently on track to be one of the warmest on record, with wildfires, droughts, storms, and the melting of glaciers only intensifying. A 7% drop in CO2 emissions this year means only a 0.01 degree C reduction in global warming by 2050.
On the positive side, the report says there is now room to correct course. Investing in zero-emission technologies and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, not building more coal plants, promoting nature-based solutions such as large-scale landscape restoration and reforestation could put emissions in 2030 at 44 GtCO2e , which would mean a 66% probability of keeping the global temperature rise below 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Furthermore, the ambition of several Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will have to be tripled to reach the 2 degree C target and increased at least 5 times to reach the 1.5 degree C target (threshold that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said to mark a threatening milestone in global warming). Current promises under the Paris Agreement are inadequate and could only limit the rise in global temperature to 3.2 degrees C, the report warned.
In fact, the report has estimated that after the initial drop in CO2 emissions, there could be a rebound effect in many countries to recover from the Covid-19 induced slowdown. Some countries could reverse climate policies as part of Covid-19 responses, then global emissions decline by 2030 could be significantly less by around 1.5 GtCO2e or could increase by around 1 GtCO2e compared to scenario current policy prior to Covid-19. .
“The year 2020 is on track to be one of the warmest on record, as wildfires, storms and droughts continue to wreak havoc,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director. “However, UNEP’s Emissions Gap report shows that recovering from a green pandemic can dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help slow climate change. I urge governments to support an ecological recovery in the next stage of Covid 19 fiscal interventions and significantly increase their climate ambitions in 2021. “
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