Updated: December 7, 2020 9:18:30 pm
Officials review EVMs at a distribution center ahead of local body elections in Kozhikode in recent months. (Photo: PTI)
In the midst of continuous local corporate surveys in Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram Corporation’s board election is one of the most watched contests.
The Thiruvananthapuram corporation is the largest urban body in the state by area and population, with 100 districts divided into parts of at least four Assembly segments in the district. It has been governed by the CPM-led LDF for the past 15 years. Other than this, what makes the competition interesting this time around is the equal firepower that the three main coalitions – LDF, UDF and NDA – bring to the race.
The 2015 election for the corporation witnessed the phenomenal rise of the BJP, which won 34 districts, up from four in the 2010 elections. In doing so, the BJP pushed the UDF into third position and emerged a surprising distance from the LDF, which was the largest coalition with 42 districts. The result showed that while the BJP struck blows at both coalitions, it had made deeper inroads into the traditional strongholds of the UDF than the LDF had.
This time, the BJP seeks a clear majority and a mayor of its own. Being able to seize power in a local body that controls the state capital, especially under the nose of the ruling LDF government, would be a shot in the arm for the party in the run-up to the Assembly elections next year. The BJP is also optimistic thanks to its show in the Hyderabad civic polls earlier this month, where it won 48 districts, up from four in the previous elections, finishing a close second behind TRS.
The saffron party underscored how serious it was to capture the Thiruvananthapuram corporation when it nominated none other than its district president, VV Rajesh, as the Poojappura neighborhood candidate. When journalists asked BJP state chair K Surendran if the move could be seen as a demotion to Rajesh, considering the fact that he had challenged the 2016 Nedumangad Assembly election, the latter replied that it showed how the party was willing to bet on experienced leaders. to win a major local body election.
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The urban areas of Thiruvananthapuram have historically been fertile ground for the BJP, thanks to a large Hindu population among which the upper caste Nairs represent a considerable part. They are also areas in which RSS has considerable influence. This surge of support was evident in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when BJP veteran O Rajagopal led by wide margins in four segments of the Assembly, all urban areas of the district, over Congressional leader Shashi Tharoor. But a very poor performance in the coastal areas ultimately cost Rajagopal the election.
The clues Rajagopal obtained in 2014 did not crystallize in favor of the BJP in the 2016 Assembly elections or the 2019 Lok Sabha elections for various reasons, such as factionalism, poor candidate selection, and cross-voting. Despite a stronger wave in favor of Narendra Modi across the country in 2019, the Kerala BJP ended up wasting their winnings.
In a subsequent by-election in Vattiyoorkavu, a segment of the Assembly in the city of Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP was shocked when its main leader Kummanam Rajasekharan, who was put forward as a candidate after resigning from the governorship in Mizoram, lost miserably.
In the context of such defeats, the party realizes that it has to overcome its weight in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation elections to keep cadre morale high ahead of next year’s Assembly elections. The party’s central leadership, which has been irritated by rampant factionalism within the state unit, must also be appeased. The recent rebellion of senior leader Sobha Surendran and his absence from the campaign have clouded the mood within the party.
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The RSS leadership has reportedly taken direct control of the campaign, so that disputes between local BJP leaders can be kept at bay. Rebels who did not get tickets pose a challenge in some seats, but the distribution of tickets to the 100 districts was generally peaceful and quick. With the mayoral seat reserved for women in this cycle, the BJP has nominated several experienced candidates if things go well.
The first phase of elections in the southern five districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha and Idukki is scheduled for Tuesday.
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