Increasingly isolated Donald Trump, with his quixotic quest to overturn Joe Biden’s election victory crushed at every turn, is openly reflecting on a second race for the US presidency in 2024.
“It’s been an amazing four years. We’re trying to make another four years. Otherwise, I’ll see you in four years,” he told guests at a White House Christmas party on Tuesday.
The event, which was attended by several powerful Republican Party officials, was closed to the media, but a video of the outgoing president’s speech was quickly made public.
Almost a month after the Nov.3 election, the 74-year-old Trump still refuses to acknowledge that he lost and has not yielded to his Democratic rival, who is busy building his new administration.
Locked up in the White House, Trump has limited his public appearances to a minimum, but has not shied away from making angry tweets about alleged election fraud, which his own attorney general says is not obvious.
“To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have had a different outcome in the election,” Bill Barr told the Associated Press on Tuesday.
Barr’s statement was even more powerful because he is a staunch ally of Trump.
Given the curious political climate, in which the president-elect is busy introducing nominees to his cabinet while the current president spreads conspiracy theories, speculation in the nation’s capital is skyrocketing.
According to NBC News, Trump has discussed the possibility with his close associates of launching his 2024 campaign on January 20, the day of Biden’s inauguration, which the Republican clearly does not plan to attend.
As he has publicly admitted in the past, the Manhattan real estate mogul-turned-president is a bit superstitious. In 2017, he submitted documentation for his 2020 campaign on January 20, the same day he was sworn in.
Nothing loves Trump more than being a provocateur, and if he organized a rally to rival the pomp and circumstances of the inauguration, he would embrace one of his favorite political maneuvers: counterprogramming.
Several times during his tenure, he boycotted the annual dinner hosted by the White House Correspondents Association, only to appear at a campaign rally that night.
Obstacle course
The formal launch of a Trump 2024 campaign would allow it to stay center stage, at least in the short term. But his path to victory would be strewn with obstacles, to say the least.
As of January 20, he will be the former president and the political calculation will change drastically.
The influence it exerts on Republican lawmakers and the 24-hour media attention that it dominates (and in which it thrives) will diminish considerably.
All eyes will be on his successor, but also on various state senators and governors within his own party who harbor White House ambitions.
As he has repeatedly said on Twitter, Trump did not suffer the collapse at the polls some predicted, and he can certainly boast a significant political base.
The counts continue, but one thing is for sure: the 2020 elections saw a record turnout. Biden won more than 81 million votes, but Trump passed the 74 million mark, the two highest totals for presidential candidates.
Nationally by percentage, Trump, who incessantly mocks “losers,” is not doing so well. He obtained less than 47 percent of the votes cast.
So will he end up being the Republican presidential nominee in four years?
It seems like a pretty long shot. Trump is not a traditional politician: he works by instinct, in the moment. Long-term strategic planning is not his strong suit.
In theory, nothing prevents you from trying again in four years. The United States Constitution prevents anyone from serving more than two full terms in the White House, but non-consecutive terms are possible.
Only one president did: Grover Cleveland, in the late 1800s.
First elected in 1884, his bid for reelection was a failure in 1888, but four years later, he won again, making him the 22nd and 24th President of the United States.
Cleveland was 56 at the beginning of his second term. Trump would be 78, the same age Biden is now.
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