Hyderabad: If a vibrant democracy is about differences of opinion, the GHMC elections are proof that ours are one. Even bookmakers are divided in their opinion on the thriller that most people expect Tuesday’s election to turn out. But the broader obviousness is well established: It is a close-quarters race between the ruler TRS and the challenger, the BJP, and the MIM is expected to hold on to its strength.
The bookies on the most crucial bet – who will win the most seats – TRS or BJP – are giving TRS an advantage; in 87 paisa for Re 1 for the pink party and 96 paisa for the BJP. There is a bet available on an exact draw, but the odds are high, `2.76 times` 1.
For non-bettors and common people, it means that if you invest Rs 100 in the prospect that TRS will get more seats than BJP, you win 87 and 96 for the same bet that BJP wins. Since bets will be taken all day tomorrow, although the odds will change, and until the day of the results, the opposing odds will change after the exit polls start to come out. If you get 100 rupees in a perfect tie between TRS and BJP, you get 276. Of course, in real life, bets often start at ‘10,000, but most big bookies don’t accept anything below ‘1 lakh.
The odds are different for the three key parts that cross the magic mark of 76 – the odds of a 100 bet are 139 (TRS), 156 (BJP), and 276 (MIM). Thus, the betting market favors an overall tight thriller over a clear majority for any party, and TRS has a slight advantage again over BJP. The MIM is unlikely to cross 50 rooms, much less 75, according to most bookies. The probability of TRS crossing 100 rooms is 476, and for BJP it is 536 against a bet of 100.
There is a different set of probabilities for the mayor, combining the already prevalent strong bias in favor of the TRS, which has 38 ex officio votes to a mere three (3) for the BJP. The lowest odds are for a TRS-MIM alliance after polls of just 101-100.
The equally interesting aspect is that while the bookmakers offer these odds, most bettors (people who make bets) mostly bet on TRS or BJP; no candidates for any of the other parties, be it the MIM or Congress.
Another set of sources close to bookies and punters revealed that bookmakers turn to high value punters to bet on BJP. This means that some of the biggest stakes are in the BJP, in terms of whether they will have a mayor, cross the middle of the road, or cross 50 seats. The next lot is to bet on TRS crossing 50, TRS getting more seats than BJP, TRS crossing the middle of the road or crossing 100.
Some bookmakers have invited to place bets by offering 1: 2 to 1: 5 ratio bets on BJP seat numbers and gaining power at GHMC, and matching the odds of TRS crossing all 100 seats.
Sources explained that if BJP wins less than 15 seats, bettors will get “500 wins for” 100 bets, and the same with BJP winning the mayor position. The odds, while not high, are still high for TRS to win the majority with 76 seats at 200 wins per 100 bets. It is a 500 per 100 bet for TRS crossing all 100 seats.
Sources said that bookies are trying to accept bets on TRS or BJP crossing 76 because they are considered safe for bookmakers’ bets (i.e. less likely to happen) and punters lose their money. But the odds are attractive for bettors who are willing to take risks.
Sources also said that at lower volumes and quantities, bets are being made on MIM in terms of losing seats in the Old City out of the existing 44. Sources said that bookmakers are willing to offer high stakes on MIM losing seats by 1: 2. The only bet available in Congress is that the party will cross five or more seats.
These are clearly the initial probabilities and will change dynamically in accordance with the real-time trends when the survey begins. Sources also said that in addition to professional gambling circles, political circles will start betting on BJP and TRS winning chances starting tomorrow night. If the odds suddenly change at noon tomorrow, it means that a particular trend is clear.
What are the chances that, despite all the reminders, several people will not vote? Sadly, we would have bet on that, but no bookmaker is open to giving money to bet on the irresponsibility or indifference of the urban middle classes.
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