Nepal’s ties with India are heating up, but China could complicate the situation | Analysis – world news


The government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is eager to advance its relationship with India and could have a positive opinion on a travel air bubble with India and the Pancheshwar multimodal project after the two-day visit of Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, people familiar with said the matter. Shringla had a 50-minute one-on-one conversation with Prime Minister Oli on November 26 in which the two countries focused on steps to normalize relations and were heavily affected due to the Lipu Lekh border row.

“They are eager to move the relationship forward and will send some positive signals in this regard. But they also want the issue of limits to be discussed, ”said a senior official. As a first step in deepening bilateral cooperation, the two countries could establish the travel air bubble and reactivate negotiations on the Pancheshwar multimodal project. Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali is expected to be in India in December for which dates are being worked out.

Relations between the two neighbors had plummeted this year after Nepal opposed an 80-kilometer border road to the Lipulekh region claimed by Nepal. Kathmandu responded by publishing a new map showing the Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura Indian territories as part of Nepal.

Also read: In Nepal, how domestic politics collides with geopolitics

For the past few months, the two countries have been taking silent steps to reestablish ties. India does not want to vacate the space in Nepal and allow China to create additional leverage in the Himalayan Republic.

But diplomats in New Delhi and Kathmandu suggest there is some concern that China, which appears to be influencing Nepal’s politics and economy, could hold back Kathmandu.

The continuing political flow in Nepal and the battle between the two co-chairs of the Communist Party of Nepal (PNC), KP Sharma Oli and PK Dahal, also known as Prachanda, has increased uncertainties around the ruling party and created an opportunity for China step in. .

President Xi Jinping’s Communist Party of China has been interested in having the Communist Party of Nepal formed in 2018 after the merger with the two Communist parties of Nepal: the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML ) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center). – is not divided. It was reported that Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi intervened to bridge the gap between the two factions led by Prime Minister Oli and Prachanda in the past.

Diplomats say the timing of Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe on Sunday was indicative of Beijing’s focus on Kathmandu and the reinforcement of its multiple messages to Prime Minister Oli’s government and the opposition. During his one-day visit, General Wei met with Prime Minister Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari and Nepal’s army chief Purna Chandra Thapa before leaving for Pakistan in the evening.

Prime Minister Oli is believed to have suggested to Ambassador Hou Yanqi at their meeting earlier this month that he is capable of handling challenges within his party without help from other countries. But it is not clear if he will be able to stand his ground.

Beijing wants the Nepalese communist movement to stick together so that the country remains antagonistic towards India. The other option at stake is to remove Prime Minister Oli from the party and government, who wants a rapprochement with India.

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