For decades, the marriage pages of vernacular newspapers in West Bengal have been talking silently about the caste factor in this cultural capital of India.
Once the fiefdom of the PCI (M), which was part of the state’s ruling regime for 34 years, from 1977 to 2011, the caste factor behind the dominance of the left in Bengal politics never made headlines until the Trinamool Congress came to power in 2011.
Mamata Banerjee demolished the hegemonic rule of the left while participating in the movements against the Singur and Nandigram land acquisitions. But after the two historic upheavals that reduced the left to insignificance in state politics, the TMC’s ‘appeasement policy’ towards dominant minorities was a well-thought-out strategy by Mamata to advance the party.
The BJP saw a great political opportunity on the other side in consolidating the Hindu votes and began playing the ‘Hindu card’ with remarkable success. In 2014, Dilip Ghosh, an active RSS worker, was appointed state secretary general and in 2015 he was promoted to state party chairman.
The strategy worked well and in the 2019 parliamentary elections the BJP managed to secure nearly 57 percent of Hindu votes against 32 percent of TMC votes.
The saffron party won 18 of the state’s 42 Lok Sabha, just four fewer than TMC’s 22.
A detailed analysis reveals, except for Muslims, that others such as upper caste Hindus, CBOs, Dalits and tribes voted in large numbers for the BJP. While 57 percent of upper-caste people voted for the BJP, only 31 percent supported the TMC.
Similarly, nearly 65 percent of CBOs favored the BJP and 28 percent voted for the TMC. However, compared to 2014 statistics, there was a 2 percent increase in TMC’s voting share from OBCs. Almost 61 percent of Dalits voted for the BJP and TMC got only 26.9 percent, while 58 percent of Tribals voted for the BJP and only 28 percent for Trinamool.
However, the game changer was that more than 70 percent of Muslims voted for the ruling TMC in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and that is why the state BJP on Tuesday hosted a brainstorming session to address this. challenge before the 2021 assembly elections.
“Today, all the state leaders of the BJP will meet to plan the preparation for the elections in Bengal. All senior party leaders, including BL Santhosh, Amit Malviya, Arvind Menon, Shiv Prakash, Kailash Vijayvargiya ji will be present, ”said BJP State President Dilip Ghosh.
In addition to Vijayvargiya, Malviya also took over Bengal and Tuesday’s meeting would be the first in the state after taking on the new responsibility.
With elections for the 294-member state assembly scheduled for early 2021 and in the midst of AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi, “vote-cutter” decision to challenge the Bengal elections, the state BJP at today’s meeting define a strategy to break the TMC. Muslim vote base in 98 assembly seats in Bengal. In addition to the plans to bring the achievements of the Center to the masses in the state, the party will also decide on various campaign models against Mamata Banerjee at ground level and through social media.
“Although Asaduddin Owaisi managed to secure only five seats in the Bihar assembly, it was enough to scuttle Mahagathbandhan’s hopes of overtaking the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state. This time a similar situation is going to arise in Bengal, ”said a BJP leader from the party’s minority cell.
Recently, BJP Vice President Jay Prakash Majumdar had said: “Troubles for Mamata Banerjee are inevitable, as influential Muslim groups in Bengal are in talks with Asaduddin Owaisi. They plan to contest the state polls in at least more than these 60 seats. This temporal division of the Muslim vote share is certain, which means the end of TMC in Bengal. “
In 2016 assembly polls, out of 294 state seats, Mamata won 211, and of these 211, 98 districts were won largely due to the Muslim vote factor.
The BJP has worked on this and is ready to enter these 98 seats in the assembly, which tipped the balance in favor of Mamata Banerjee in the latest state polls.
In 68 seats out of these 98 seats, the Muslim vote share is 30 percent, while in 20 seats their vote share is 20 percent.
Speaking to News18, policy expert Kapil Thakur said: “Caste-based politics was always present in Bengal, but never stood out. It is now in the open, as the BJP has made it very clear that it is trying to consolidate the Hindu votes and split the Muslim votes. The BJP is doing its best with the Hindu card and this has forced Mamata to announce various sops for Hindus at their recent meetings. One of the crucial announcements was the assignments for the priests of Sanatan ”.
Currently, according to the TMC’s internal assessment, it is comfortably ahead of the BJP at the cabin level by 165-170 seats, including 98 where Muslim votes are a major factor, and 70 dominated mainly by Hindus.
Leaving aside the possible repercussions of the CAA-NRC issue, according to the internal assessment of the BJP, of the 294 seats in the assembly, Muslim votes are not decisive in 226, and this could give the party a big advantage in the next elections. .
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