November 17, 2020 1:35:30 pm
Militia members from the Amhara region travel in their truck as they head to the mission to confront the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in Sanja, Amhara region, near the border with Tigray, Ethiopia, on November 9, 2020 (Reuters Photo: Tiksa Negeri). )
When Ethiopia’s internal conflict began earlier this month, observers feared it would spread beyond the country’s borders and have ramifications for the wider Horn of Africa region. Now, with the participation of neighboring Eritrea earlier this week, it appears these concerns were not unfounded.
What is the latest development?
The conflict escalated this week when Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia rockets fired crossed the border into Eritrea, claiming that the Ethiopian government was using an Eritrean airport to attack Tigray.
On Saturday night, there were reports of rockets landing near the airport in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, but there were no casualties. According to a BBC According to the report, Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael had said that in recent days, his forces have been fighting 16 divisions of the Eritrean army. Tigray leaders have also accused Eritrean forces of entering Ethiopia to support the federal government in its fight against Tigray.
These accusations were denied by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who stated in a tweet on Sunday that Ethiopia was more than capable of achieving its goals in Tigray “on its own”. The leader did not specifically address Debretsion’s claims or mention Eritrea.
Justice will prevail. Ethiopia will prevail! pic.twitter.com/1mNSPbAktQ
– Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) November 15, 2020
Why is there animosity between Tigray and Eritrea?
The animosity between the Tigrayans and Eritrea dates back to the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea that occurred between 1998 and 2000. According to The New York Times, “Many TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) veterans who participated in the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea between 1998 and 2000 are now part of the paramilitary forces in the Tigray region.” The animosity between these TPLF veterans and Eritrea continues to this day.
This war that occurred approximately two decades ago was extremely brutal and resulted in the death of thousands of soldiers. Last year, Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize Due to her efforts that resulted in peace with the Eritrea leadership, but despite her improving relations with Addis Ababa, Asmara continues to be hostile to the Tigrayans and their leaders due to the war.
Read also | The Tigray conflict in Ethiopia: a powder keg waiting to explode
The map locates Eritrea and the Tigray region of Ethiopia. (Source: AP)
What are the humanitarian concerns?
After the conflict started earlier this month, thousands of Ethiopian civilians were displaced. UNHCR reported that thousands of refugees had been cross the border and get to Sudan after the fighting started and the international organization anticipated the arrival of many more as the conflict escalated.
There have been reports of blocked roads, with internet and communication lines cut off in Ethiopia. Before the start of this conflict, there were already several thousand internally displaced civilians in Tigray, in what researchers say was a sequel to the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Now this latest conflict has only increased the number of displaced people and may lead to a humanitarian crisis. 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
Ethiopians who fled ongoing fighting in the Tigray region prepare to cross the Setit River on the Sudan-Ethiopia border in Hamdait village in the eastern state of Kassala, Sudan, on November 14, 2020 (Photo from Reuters: The Tayeb Siddig).
What impact will this have on the Horn of Africa region?
With large numbers of Ethiopian civilians fleeing to Sudan, the country may be inadvertently dragged into war. Earlier this year, amid Ethiopia’s protracted conflict with Egypt over the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, Sudan had already become embroiled in the dispute.
The Ethiopian government is ready to receive and reintegrate our fellow Ethiopians fleeing to neighboring countries. We promise our innocent civilians who have fled to protect their property, allow the humanitarian support of the ENDF and guarantee their peace upon their return.
– Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) November 16, 2020
On Saturday, Sudan and Egypt participated in joint military exercises in what observers said was an indication of deepening ties between the two countries. According to a Reuters report, the “International Crisis Group, a think tank, warned on November 5 that any Eritrea involvement in the conflict could, in turn, attract Sudan.”
If the conflict were to spread beyond Ethiopia’s borders, it could potentially destabilize the Horn of Africa region. The United States and China have several strategic military bases in that region, the closest being Djibouti. November 16 Reuters reported that President Vladimir Putin had approved the creation of a Russian naval facility in Sudan earlier this week that would be “capable of mooring nuclear-powered surface ships, clearing the way for Moscow’s first substantial military foothold in Africa. since the Soviet fall “. If these military bases and facilities were affected in any way, it could cause foreign powers to become militarily involved in the conflict in the region.
“Ethiopia’s stability is important to the entire Horn of Africa region. I call for an immediate reduction in tensions and a peaceful resolution of the dispute, ”UN Secretary General António Guterres said in a Twitter post last week.
I am deeply alarmed by the situation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.
The stability of Ethiopia is important to the entire Horn of Africa region.
I call for an immediate reduction in tensions and a peaceful resolution of the dispute. Https://t.co/nWtI2JtGlu
– António Guterres (@antonioguterres) November 5, 2020
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