Updated: November 14, 2020 6:48:54 am
A sign outside a polling station in North Carolina in October. Reuters
The annual climate change conference was in session in Marrakech, Morocco, when the results of the 2016 US presidential election came in. Donald Trump’s victory, surprising at the time, surprised most of the conference participants. Some of the veteran climate activists, men and women who had worked for years to make a global agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions a reality, could not hold back their tears.
In his election campaign, Trump had described climate change as a “hoax” and had promised to get out of the historic Paris Agreement that had been finalized just a year earlier. Trump kept his promise six months into his presidency. Many of his other decisions during the presidency, on coal and clean energy, were also seen as profoundly detrimental to climate goals. With Trump set to leave the White House on January 20 of next year, the part of his legacy that needs to be undone first is its climate policy. President-elect Joe Biden has publicly stated that the United States seek to rejoin the Paris Agreement as soon as you take office, possibly the same day.
What is the Paris Agreement and what would be the role of the United States?
The 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to keep the rise in global temperatures within 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial times, a goal that cannot be achieved without the active participation of the United States. The United States remains the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, after China.
The United States, under Barack Obama, had promised to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% by 2030, compared to a 2005 baseline, as part of its commitment to the Paris Agreement. US emissions peaked in 2005, emitting more than seven billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. In the absence of a specific reduction, emissions have been reduced only marginally since then. In 2018, the latest year for which emissions data are available, the US had emitted more than 6.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The Paris Agreement target meant that the US would have had to reduce its emissions by at least 1.5 billion tons in the next decade and hopefully more after that. But since he left the Paris Agreement, he currently has no obligation to achieve this goal. This seriously undermines the ability of the Paris Agreement to meet its objective.
But what is even more crucial is the ability of the United States to mobilize climate funds, particularly from private corporations, which is key to achieving the 2 ° C target. Hundreds of billions of dollars (some estimates put these figures in the trillions). dollars) in climate finance each year to enable the transition to a low-carbon economy. The absence of the United States as a key facilitator of this process has been a major setback. 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
What was the impact of the Trump administration’s moves on climate-related issues?
It wasn’t that the United States under Trump only deviated from the commitments of the Paris Agreement. Several of the other decisions Trump made as president, ostensibly to promote domestic jobs and stimulate economic activity, were seen as a direct promotion of the fossil fuel industry, which would result in increased emissions. These included reversing a 2015 order that required agencies of the US federal government to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions by 40% in ten years, compared to 2008 levels.
The New York Times recently published a list of more than 100 decisions by the Trump administration that weakened existing environmental laws and eased emissions restrictions in the industry.
The United States had played a pivotal role in finalizing the Paris Agreement, as it did not like the Kyoto Protocol, the previous international climate agreement, and had never become part of it. Even the Paris Agreement was very delicately balanced. There are several issues related to its implementation that are not yet resolved. The US decisions, which were made when the Paris Agreement was barely standing on its own, emerged as a major threat to climate goals.
“The biggest damage President Donald Trump did to the fight against climate change was to remove trust among the major economies. The Paris Agreement had carefully created the conditions to slowly rebuild trust and rested on foundations that needed to be strengthened. Instead, Trump weakened and removed those foundations, ”said Arunabha Ghosh, who heads the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
“And he reinjected denial of science into the public discourse on climate change,” Ghosh said.
Read also | What it means for the US to leave the Paris Agreement and how a Biden presidency could rejoin
What happens now?
With Biden assuming the presidency, the United States is expected to go through another round of policy changes on climate change. A return to the Paris Agreement is almost certain. Shortly after his victory became apparent on November 4, Biden announced that his administration would rejoin the Paris Agreement “in exactly 77 days,” a reference to his inauguration date of January 20.
Unlike the exit process from the Paris Agreement, which takes a year to formalize, reincorporation will not take long. Interestingly, the United States’ exit from the Paris Agreement had been formalized on the same day that Biden was victorious.
“Assuming Joe Biden sends a letter… stating that the United States will rejoin the Paris Agreement on January 20, the reinstatement would automatically take effect 30 days after that. No further US or international approvals required. Later, the United States would have to submit a revised National Determined Contribution (a new climate action goal, such as the 26-28 percent reduction it had previously promised). That wouldn’t have to be done right away, ”Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, said in an email.
How helpful will re-entry be?
Rejoining the Paris Agreement is the easy part. Biden is likely to have a tougher job trying to restore confidence in the United States for his climate actions. “In these last four years, a lot has happened in the world outside of the United States. For example, in India, solar electricity is already the cheapest electricity on the market, when the sun is shining. And based on the prices discovered in the latest tenders, it appears that the price of 24-hour renewable electricity will be competitive with the price of coal-fired electricity in about two years. The United States needs to catch up quickly and demonstrate its climate leadership through action, and not just words, ”said Ajay Mathur, CEO of the Delhi-based Institute of Energy and Resources.
Also in Explained | What to expect from the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration
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