It is a no-brainer in Indian politics that ruling parties generally tend to be successful in by-elections as they control the administrative machinery. However, it would be a mistake to rule out victories in two specific mounting segments that the BJP has won in the last year in Karnataka.
While it is true that since November 2019 there have been 17 by-elections in the state and BJP has won 14. However, it is the victory of the Saffron party in the KR Pete seat last year and Sira’s seat now that really stands out. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward.
The BJP has long been seen as a ‘Lingayat’ party, mainly by the leadership of Yediyurappa, which belongs to the community. With a Lingayat population of 17 percent in the state, the party has also benefited from that perception.
The second is that the BJP has been a North Karnataka party with nearly 81 of the 104 MLAs that won in the 2018 assembly elections hailing from that part of the state.
Historically it has been weak in what is considered the “Old Mysuru region”, which comprises the districts that in the past were ruled by the Mysuru Wodeyar dynasty, and which, incidentally, is also dominated by the Vokkaliga community.
Vokkaligas, with around 13 percent of the state’s population, is not only the second largest community, but has largely been immune to the charms of the BJP despite the party’s best efforts. The JDS has always championed the cause of the community and whenever the party has fallen from grace, Vokkaligas has tended to back Congress.
For the BJP, which fell 10 seats short of a simple majority in 2008 and 2018, the need to expand its social base, especially in the Old Mysuru region and among the Vokkaligas, is key if it wants to dominate state politics.
Which is where, the victories in KR Pete from Mandya district last year and Sira in Tumakuru now are so important. Both are dominated by Vokkaliga and are located in the ancient Mysuru region. Both are seen as bastions of Janata Dal (Secular) and power alternated between the regional party and the Congress.
In both battles, the BJP entrusted the task of winning those seats to the party’s young vice president, Vijayendra. When last year, KR Pete, where JD (S) renegade Narayana Gowda, who helped BJP overthrow the Congress-JDS coalition, defended the elections, JD (S) vowed revenge. Vijavendra secured Narayan Gowda’s victory against all odds, but was dismissed as a fluke.
Now, Vijayendra has repeated the feat at Sira, where the BJP never came in second and lost almost the entire deposit in all previous polls. By securing the victory for his candidate Rajesh Gowda, Vijayendra has shown himself to be someone to watch in Karnataka politics.
It has helped that he is the son of Prime Minister Yediyurappa. At 45, he is very young by political standards, expresses himself well, and has his father’s knack for leading people.
While his older brother BY Raghavendra, the Shivamogga MP, is seen as more reserved, Vijayendra is seen as more accessible by party workers and the public.
Given the political acumen he has displayed so far, most analysts, and even political opponents, believe that it is Vijayendra who will be the heir to Yediyurappa’s political legacy. Vijayendra, in a recent chat with HT, dismissed such speculation, saying that the family is close and that there is no internal rivalry.
But it’s also becoming increasingly clear that Vijayendra is trying to carve a niche for himself and step out of his father’s shadow. Vijayendra is not without controversy, with the opposition accusing him of being the super CM and also being involved in corruption, which he dismisses as the “price I pay for being the bridge between the CM and the people, as well as the workers of the CM. match”. .
There is a growing clamor for Vijayendra to contest the Basva Kalyan bypoll which will likely take place in the coming months. The current MLA Congress Narayana Rao passed away due to Covid and the BJP will have to find a candidate for the seat.
In the 2018 assembly poll as well, Vijayendra was a contender for the Varuna constituency, which was eventually won by the son of another former CM, Yathindra Siddaramiah. Even when CM Yediyurappa dismissed speculation that Vijayendra would be sent from Basva Kalyan, the ambitious son is more careful and says he will “take on any responsibility given by the party.”
For Vijayendra, the challenge would be to continue developing an identity outside of her father Yediyurappa while inheriting his political mantle as the leader of the Lingayats and beyond. How successful you are on this trip will determine your political future.
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