Through the ebb and flow of vote counting for Bihar’s new assembly, there was one constant: The BJP demonstrated significant improvement in its electoral performance. That performance catapulted him to the position of the largest party in the state. That performance was strong enough to compensate for the weaknesses of his partner, Janata Dal (United), who had ruled Bihar for 15 years and faced the fight against incumbency.
That performance also looked good enough to quell the challenge of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), an alliance between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and a collective of left-wing parties. At the time of publication, several districts were locked in close-quarters battles on very narrow margins, most of them involving the RJD led by Tejashwi Yadav. But the JD (U) seemed ready for five more years in power, but this time as a junior partner of the BJP.
As a state that was severely affected by the consequences of the pandemic while suffering intense floods during the monsoons, this election was perceived by many as a referendum on the ruling government’s pandemic response. The performance of the BJP has ended up defining the contest. As of 3:30 pm Tuesday, the NDA led with 129 seats in the 243-person Bihar assembly. His strong performance has been fueled by a resurgence of the BJP, fueled by the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even when Nitish Kumar was officially declared the NDA’s top ministerial candidate, Modi was central to his campaign.
The BJP led in 73 of the 110 seats in which it competed, or a strike rate of around 66%. That was double his strike rate in 2015, making up for the poor performance of ally JD (U). In opposition, both the RJD and Congress, which were competing individually for more seats than in 2015, saw their respective strike rates drop. A big surprise came from the left parties, which are part of the opposition alliance. They led 18 of the 29 seats that competed, or a strike rate of 62%.
Even in individual match matches, the BJP was a picture of consistency. He led more than two-thirds of the direct contests against the RJD. Against Congress, he won 81% of the seats. While JD (U) lags behind in their clashes with RJD, leading about 39% of matches, they have a favorable record against Congress, leading in more than 63% of matches. The RJD against the BJP and the Congress against the BJP and JD (U) were the weak links in the opposition alliance.
For JD (U), things got worse with their ex-ally Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag Paswan. The JD (U) contested 115 seats, with the LJP also in the fray. Of these, JD (U) led in 49 seats, but in 36, the LJP was in second or third place, eroding the advantages of the first.
Of the 64 seats where JD (U) did not lead, there were 45 where LJP was in the top three. In these 45 seats, the JD (U) candidate was behind the leading candidate by an average vote share of 14 percentage points. The average LJP vote percentage in these 45 seats was 16%. In 12 seats, JD (U) was behind the leader by 5 percentage points. While a full transfer of votes even between alliance partners generally does not materialize, LJP’s departure appears to have hurt JD (U) in several seats.
In many seats, the contest was close. At 3.30 pm, in 67 seats, the advantage was less than 5 percentage points. The RJD was involved in up to 41 of them, and was behind in 24 of them. While JD (U) also has significant stakes in these hotly contested seats, leading at 18 and second at 14, their ally BJP was not as involved. Rather, the BJP appears to have significant margins where it leads, and this can potentially shift the balance in favor of the NDA in the bottom line.
Even as final results are awaited on this suspense, the NDA appears to have the upper hand. The implications of an NDA victory would be immense. This would mean that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remains largely intact in the state despite the pandemic. Furthermore, it provides a timely boost for the BJP as it sets its sights on the upcoming assembly elections in neighboring West Bengal, where it faces its bitter adversary, the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee.
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