From security to trade to climate change, a powerful reach of the US extends to almost every corner of the Asia-Pacific. In his four years in office, President Donald Trump shook the foundations of American relations here while courting traditional rivals and attacking allies with frequency and enthusiasm.
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Now, as Biden seeks to solve the tumultuous internal problems, there is widespread concern that Asia will end up as an afterthought. The allies will be neglected. Rivals and especially China, that huge American competitor for regional supremacy, will do whatever they want.
In the wake of perhaps the most controversial presidency in recent United States history, here’s a look at how a Biden White House will unfold in one of the world’s most important and volatile regions:
China
Biden will likely look here first.
The two nations are inexorably intertwined, economically and politically, even as the United States’ military presence in the Pacific rages against China’s expanded effort to get away with what it considers to be its natural sphere of influence.
Under Trump, the two rivals engaged in a trade war and a lively exchange of verbal hostilities. A Biden administration could have a calming effect on those worn ties, according to Alexander Huang, a professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taipei and a former Taiwanese national security official.
“I hope that Biden returns to the more moderate and less confrontational approach of the Obama era to China-US relations,” he said.
Closer rapprochement with China could lead Washington to downplay its support for Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, without necessarily reducing the United States’ commitment to ensuring the island can defend itself against Chinese threats, Huang said.
Retired chemical engineer Tang Ruiguo echoed the view shared by many in China of an unstoppable decline of the United States from world superpower status. “No matter who is elected, I believe the United States can go into turmoil and unrest and its development will be affected,” Tang said.
India
Not much will change with the myriad of security and defense ties that India and the United States share. But a Biden administration could mean a much closer look at India’s recent spotty human rights and religious freedom records, both of which were largely ignored by Trump.
Biden is also expected to be more critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies, which some critics say are against minorities, according to Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center.
The countries will work more closely to counter China, a shared rival, Kugelman said. A Biden White House will not “run the risk of antagonizing a country that is widely viewed in Washington as America’s best strategic bet in South Asia,” he said.
The Koreas
Say goodbye to the summits.
Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un went from threats of war to three unprecedented sit-ins that, while high-profile media events, did nothing to rid the North of its banned long-range nuclear-tipped missiles.
Kim must now tailor his propaganda services to a man who was once condemned as a “mad dog” who “must be beaten to death.”
Biden, for his part, has called Kim a “butcher” and a “bully,” and said Trump had given a dictator legitimacy with “three made-for-television summits” that produced no progress in disarmament.
Biden has endorsed a slower approach built from working-level meetings and said he would be willing to toughen sanctions in the North until he takes concrete denuclearization steps.
North Korea, which has yet to show any willingness to ditch a nuclear arsenal that Kim may see as its greatest guarantee of survival, prefers a summit-driven process that gives it a better chance of pocketing instant concessions than would otherwise be rejected by lower-level diplomats.
For South Korea, the new president will likely show more respect for his treaty ally than Trump, who unilaterally curtailed joint military training and constantly complained about the cost of the 28,500 US troops stationed in the South to defend himself from North Korea.
Japan
The resignation this year of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended one of Trump’s few close and productive relationships with a foreign leader.
There is hope in Tokyo that Biden’s more progressive green policies will help Japanese green companies and that he will take a hard line with China, with which Japan is in constant competition.
But there is also concern.
Under Biden, “America cannot afford to care for other countries, and it must prioritize its own rebuilding,” said Hiro Aida, a professor of modern American history and politics at Kansai University.
While Biden is consumed by his nation’s many internal troubles, from race riots to concerns about the economy, healthcare and the coronavirus, Japan could be left alone as China pursues its territorial ambitions and North Korea expands its nuclear efforts, according to Peter. Tasker, a Tokyo-based Analyst for Arcus Research.
Australia and New Zealand
The conservative Australian prime minister who was in power when Trump was elected, Malcolm Turnbull, may have spoken for many when he tweeted congratulations to Biden: “What a relief you won.”
There is hope that Biden will do better than the Trump administration, which granted Australian manufacturers waivers of US steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 before reportedly changing his mind a year later.
For New Zealand, there are aspirations to sell more milk and beef under a US administration that is more open to free trade.
New Zealand and other Pacific nations also hope that Biden can help ease tensions with China.
New Zealand has found itself caught between the two superpowers, relying on China as its biggest trading partner while maintaining traditional defense and intelligence ties with the United States.
Southeast Asia
Some countries in the region, such as Malaysia, have leaned toward China due to heavy investment and a focus on economic recovery, and “it will take time for the United States to regain confidence,” said Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia. “The power of the United States will never be what it was.”
Biden is also likely to be more cautious in dealing with strong leaders such as Rodrigo Duterte from the Philippines, Prayut Chan-o-cha from Thailand and Hun Sen from Cambodia, said Richard Heydarian, an analyst in the Philippines.
“A more cautious Biden could also mean a degree of stability in relationships with deceptive allies and partners in Southeast Asia and the region,” he said. “We are going to see American leadership, but much more in conjunction with regional actors and powers, including Japan, Australia, India, European powers” and Southeast Asia.
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