DUBAI: Contrary to Donald trumpimpulsive policies in the Middle East, Joe biden It is expected to return to a more conventional American stance and reengage with Iran, redesigning regional geopolitics.
During his tenure in power, Trump’s unconventional strategy produced a dizzying sequence of signature achievements, risky moves, and failed initiatives that have transformed the political landscape of the Middle East.
The United States withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and assassinated its once-untouchable General Qasem Soleimani.
It also moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, breaking with international consensus, and curtailing the US military presence in a region that Trump believed had lost much of its strategic importance.
But with the election of Biden, the energy-rich region is on the brink of another major shift that could see a tougher American stance on human rights and arms deals.
“This is a region where a … Biden administration is expected to refocus US policy on issues like Iran and push for respect for normative values throughout the region,” the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said in a report.
“Biden has made it clear that he intends to re-enter the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) if Iran also fully complies again and seeks diplomacy with Tehran on broader issues.”
Trump’s personalized relationships with regional regimes led to his liberation from the hands of Arab leaders and monarchies, in particular the young de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, the Crown Prince. Mohammed bin Salman.
The businessman-turned-president’s warm ties, especially in the Gulf region, were in stark contrast to those of his predecessor, Barack Obama, whose deal with Iran horrified arch-rival Saudi Arabia and its neighbors.
In a regional game changer, the United States agreed just days ago to sell more than $ 10 billion worth of top-of-the-line F-35 fighter jets to the UAE, to reward its diplomatic recognition of Israel.
Trump’s policies generally worked well in the Gulf and beyond, especially in Saudi Arabia, despite a lack of action in major incidents like last year’s unprecedented attacks on energy giant Aramco, attributed to Iran.
“Saudi officials favored a second Trump presidency,” said Elham Fakhro, International Crisis Group senior analyst for the Gulf states.
“They believe that Trump has acted to protect their most important regional interests, by imposing a campaign of maximum pressure of sanctions against Iran … and by pushing the sale of arms to the kingdom.”
Now they are concerned “that a Biden administration will abandon these fundamental interests, repealing sanctions against Iran, returning to the JCPOA and limiting arms sales.”
The White House has also rejected anti-Saudi resolutions in Congress over its controversial involvement in the Yemen war, which has come at the cost of thousands of civilian lives, and the gruesome 2018 murder of a Saudi journalist in Turkey.
Given the erratic leadership of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, from his alleged role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi to his disastrous war in Yemen, MBS could find itself sidelined as Washington weighs the pros and cons of its relationship with Riyadh. “said the US-based Soufan Center.
A few hours after the election was finally called, Arab leaders rushed to congratulate Biden. Among the six Gulf countries, only Saudi Arabia has yet to react.
Biden’s regional strategy will have to grapple with a number of thorny issues in which Trump is accused of negligence or mismanagement, from assuming a decisive role to end the war in Libya, to containing a rising Turkey and confronting the threat of attacks in Iraq.
Analysts say that one of the administration’s first steps will be to reestablish contact with the Palestinians, who are angered by the Jerusalem embassy issue and also by US pressure for the Arab world to normalize ties with Israel.
Biden wholeheartedly supported the decision of several Arab nations to forge ties with Israel, and it is highly unlikely that he will close the new embassy.
However, it is expected to “roll back the most negative consequences of the Trump era” with a renewal of US aid to the Palestinians, reopening the Palestinian mission in Washington and reverting to the traditional two-state position, the EFCR said.
“Still, a full return to the status quo is unlikely.”
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