November 8, 2020 3:46:42 am
Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar addresses a meeting during an election rally in Sasaram. (PTI file photo)
The exit polls broadcast on Saturday night by the main television networks after the final phase of voting for the Assembly elections in Bihar, which recorded a provisional electoral turnout of 56.41% in three phases, they predicted that the ruling JD (U) -BJP alliance led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was coming out. While one poll predicted that the RJD-led Opposition alliance could win a two-thirds majority, another said it would cross halfway comfortably.
Most exit polls gave the RJD-Congress-Left alliance a clear advantage over the JD (U) -BJP coalition in the 243-member Assembly. All polls predicted that Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti party, which competed alone and hoped to play a key role in shaping the government after the elections, would end up with single-digit seats.
And in more bad news for Nitish Kumar, who was hoping for a record fourth term, many exit polls predicted that the BJP would perform much better than the JD (U).
Of the eight exit polls, two gave the RJD-led alliance a comfortable majority. While the India Today Axis My India poll predicted that the Opposition alliance led by Tejashwi Prasad would win between 139 and 161 seats, well above half of the 122 mark, CNN-NEWS 18-Today’s Chanakya poll gave the alliance led by RJD a landslide victory. majority of 180 seats (more or less 11). The Chanakya poll gave the JD (U) -BJP alliance just 55 seats. The India Today poll predicted that the ruling alliance would win between 69 and 91 seats.
The ABP News C voter poll predicted that the RJD-Congress-Left alliance would win 108-131 seats and the JD (U) -BJP alliance 104-128 seats. The Times Now C Voter poll said the RJD alliance would win 120 seats, closely followed by the JD (U) – BJP alliance at 116.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh poll predicted that the Opposition alliance would win between 115 and 125 seats and the JD (U) -BJP alliance between 110 and 120.
The Republic Jan Ki Baat poll gave the Opposition alliance a comfortable lead. He predicted that the RJD-led alliance would win 118-138 seats, while the JD (U) -BJP coalition would end up with 91-117 seats.
The India Ahead-ETG poll said the RJD-led alliance would get 111-129 seats and the JD (U) -BJP alliance 106-122 seats. The NEWSX-DV Research poll predicted a close end, giving the ruling alliance 110-117 seats and the Opposition alliance 108-123 seats.
Many polls predicted that the BJP would perform better than the JD (U). While the Times Now C Voter poll said the BJP was likely to get 70 seats and the JD (U) 42, the ABP poll gave the BJP seats between 66 and 74, and the JD (U) between 38 and 46.
The Republic poll gave the BJP 60-75 seats and the JD (U) 31-42 seats. The India Ahead poll predicted that the JD (U) would get 44-50 seats and the BJP 58-64.
If the exit polls turn out to be accurate, it would be seen as both a failure and a setback to the BJP’s initial strategy of portraying Nitish Kumar as the fallen leader, attempting to capitalize on the popularity and goodwill enjoyed by the prime minister. Narendra Modi among others. the electorate.
Before the elections, as well as in the first days of the campaign, the BJP’s effort had been to put the responsibility of anti-incumbency on the ruling government led by Kumar and his JD (U). Chirag Paswan’s vehement criticism and attack on Kumar was widely believed to have the tacit support of the BJP leaders, who had been targeted to keep the Chief Minister in check.
But once JD (U) leaders warned that it would sabotage the NDA’s prospects entirely, BJP leaders, including party boss JP Nadda, spoke out against the LJP leader. The JD (U) leaders said that they had warned the BJP leaders that “when the water enters the boat, the whole boat sinks.”
The overconfidence of the BJP leaders that their party could emerge as the largest party because there was a decline in Kumar’s popularity and the absence of vocal opposition began to wane after the first phase.
Although BJP’s star activists repeatedly mentioned the need to have Modi in the Center and Kumar in Bihar, the damage had already been done. The BJP’s hesitation over the Kumar and Paswan attacks appeared to have confused voters.
The BJP contested 110 seats, leaving 11 seats to the Vikassheel Insaan Party, while the ally JD (U) contested 115 seats. He had given seven seats on his behalf to Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (Secular). In the Opposition alliance, the RJD contested 144 seats, Congress 70, and the three left-wing parties – CPM, CPI (ML) and CPI – 29 seats.
The last phase of the elections on Saturday had an electoral turnout of 57.91%. Election Commission officials said the figure is likely to rise. By comparison, the same 78 seats registered a 60.6% turnout during the last Assembly elections in 2015.
Altogether, the state’s provisional share stood at 56.41% compared to 56.66% in 2015 and 57.33% in 2019 during the Lok Sabha elections.
Umesh Chandra, Director General of the Electoral Commission, said that the good voting rate was proof that India’s electoral process was robust and that the election watchdog was capable of handling elections in the “most challenging circumstances. adverse “: this was the first major election in the country at the time of the pandemic.
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