Only one of the six polls, the one conducted by Dainik Bhaskar, saw a victory for the Nitish Kumar-led team as the most likely outcome. But this added a caveat: There were tough contests in 30 seats that were too difficult to summon and if the result in these seats were against the BJP-JD (U) combine, it could finish below the middle of the road, which is 122 in an assembly of 243 members.
If the polls predicting a victory in Mahagathbandhan turn out to be accurate, it would be the first time since 2005 that the RJD would have a prime minister in the state and also the first time in India that a trio of father, mother and son would have been CM of a state. . It would also mean that the BJP’s trend towards worse results in state elections continues than national ones.
The poll that gave the RJD-led alliance the most decisive victory was conducted by Today’s Chanakya for News18. He predicted that the Mahagathbandhan would win between 161 and 191 seats, that is, from a two-thirds majority to a three-quarters majority. Partisan forecasts were not available for this poll, but in such a scenario, the RJD would clearly be the largest party and at the high end would likely even have a majority on its own.
The India Today poll also found the contest to be one-sided, giving the grand alliance between 139 and 161 seats and the NDA only 69-91 seats. Like the other polls, it didn’t see the Chirag Paswan-led LJP win more than a handful of seats in the state.
The Times Now-CVoter poll gave Mahagathbandhan 108-131 seats and NDA 104-128 seats, suggesting that either side could go half way or both could fall a bit short. In the case of a hanging assembly, the advantage would be with the NDA, which is more likely to be able to persuade LJP to back it, since it is in any case part of the alliance in the Center. However, the support may come at the price of Nitish having to step down as chief minister.
The NewsX-DV Research poll suggested a result that is quite similar to the Times Now-CVoter poll with similar equations likely to come into play.
Many of the polls did not yield a seat break by individual parties in the alliance, but those that did predicted that the RJD would maintain its position as the largest party in the state assembly and the BJP would finish second, thus becoming the main partner. of the NDA for the first time in a Bihar assembly survey.
The Times Now poll, for example, while giving the two alliances nearly equal seats, predicts that the RJD would win 81 to 89 seats compared to 66 to 74 for the BJP, meaning that both parties would improve their strength in the Assembly. They won 80 seats and 53 seats respectively in 2015. Their expansion would come mainly at the expense of the JD (U), which according to the survey would end up with between 38 and 46 seats.
Similarly, the Republic TV poll gave RJD 79-91 seats and BJP 60-75 seats, and JD (U) had to settle for 31-42 seats, a sharp drop from the 71 it won five years ago. . Even the only poll that gave the NDA a clear majority, the one conducted by Dainik Bhaskar, gave the JD (U) just 58 to 63 seats while forecasting 63-65 for the BJP and 52-60 for the RJD.
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