The stakes are high for the various alliances in the third and final phase of the Bihar assembly elections, which will go to the polls on Saturday (November 7).
The vote will take place in 78 seats and all alliances, including the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the main challenger Grand Alliance (GA) or the mahagathbandhan, and the third heterogeneous grouping of the Great Secular Democratic Front (GSDP), they go for the broke.
The NDA is made up of Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the GA is made up of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and leftist parties and the GSDP is an alliance between All India Majlis led by Asaduddin Owaisi. -e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha and Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) of Rajiv Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav.
Read also | ‘The last decade was to guarantee basic facilities, this will fulfill all aspirations,’ Prime Minister Modi says at the Forbesganj rally
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which had created a stir before the elections by breaking ranks with the ruling NDA and taking the gauntlet against JD (U) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is eager to play the spoiler .
The LJP is in direct conflict with the JD (U) in the 122 seats, where the latter has presented its candidates.
The 78 seats that will go to the polls on Saturday are spread over 16 districts in northern Bihar and the Seemanchal region. The GA had won 54 of those seats in the 2015 assembly elections, including 24 just for the JD (U), which was in alliance with the RJD.
However, the arithmetic in the survey has changed dramatically following the switch from JD (U) to NDA. The JD (U) is likely to find things difficult and emulate his five-year performance.
The RJD, which is sniffing for an opportunity to emerge as the biggest party, is likely to consolidate its account in the finals.
By 2015, the RJD had won 20 of the 78 seats, where voting will take place, while its General Assembly ally Congress had won 10. The BJP had won 19 seats and another five had gone to other regional parties More smalls.
But five years later, the LJP rebellion against the leadership of JD (U) has notably altered the reality on the ground and the latter is fighting the last phase with its back to the wall.
The JD-U has expelled 33 party leaders for six years before the final phase of the vote.
The BJP has also been caught off guard by the RJD’s concerted attempt to raise local issues in an attempt to mitigate the former’s nationalistic and jingoistic Hindutva tone.
In the East and West Champaran districts, 11 seats will go to the polls in the third phase. The BJP had won six seats in these two districts, despite a GA sweep five years ago.
The BJP had gone blank in 2015 in the districts of Madhubani, Samastipur, Madhepura and Saharsa, where voting will take place on Saturday in six, five and eight seats each, respectively.
The BJP expects 2015 to be an aberration and 2020 to be a replay of the 2010 assembly polls.
The districts of Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur and Sitamarhi have five and six seats each, respectively, where voting will take place on Saturday.
In 2015, The BJP and JD (U) had won six and three, respectively, of the 17 available seats.
In the Seemanchal region, the BJP and JD (U) had won six seats each out of 24. The GA count in the region was 15, including six for JD (U) and the only victory for the Communist Party. from India (Marxist).
Traditionally, Seemanchal has been a stronghold of the RJD and Congress.
For example, in 2010, the JD (U) and the BJP had written the story after the combined won 206 of the 243 seats in Bihar’s legislative assembly, but failed to break through the opposition citadel in Kishanganj. The RJD and Congress had won four seats in Kishanganj in 2010.
The assembly seats, where the elections will take place on Saturday, are located alongside Nepal, West Bengal and Bihar and many of them have a high Muslim population, which can lead to polarization. A sizeable section of Yadav and Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) voters in these constituencies can work for the GA’s benefit.
The BJP has unleashed its star activists, despite the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak, such as Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, UP CM Yogi Adityanath, and BJP chief JP Nadda, for the third phase.
However, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, the son of RJD chief Lalu Prasad and the face of the GA’s CM, is unfazed by the BJP’s campaign blitzkrieg as his public demonstrations have caused all the rage.
Paswan is targeting the five seats in the Samastipur district, where the LJP performed well in last year’s parliamentary elections. AIMIM, encouraged by its first victory in Bihar at the Kishanganj bypoll last October, intends to make inroads into the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region.
Political observers see a perceptible change in the third phase.
“The tone and tenor are expected to change in the third phase due to the profile of the voters. However, key issues such as employment and reverse migration will continue to resonate due to Covid-19-induced nationwide lockdown restrictions. The RJD has taken advantage of popular sentiments during the campaign. This phase holds the key when it comes to the formation of the next state government. So far, the vote has been held in 165 seats. However, no alliance can claim to have obtained the number to form the next government. This election has been intense and a fight to the end, ”said Professor NK Choudhary, political analyst.
Professor Ajay Jha, another political analyst, said Muslims held the key in the final phase of the polls. “Muslims are known for tactical voting, which can help the GA. However, AIMIM can make a difference. It will be interesting to observe the voting pattern of Muslims in the Seemanchal region and the districts of Darbhanga and Madhubani, where the community has the numerical strength. The BJP will also closely monitor any fragmentation of Muslim votes, ”he added.
Bihar Mount Surveys: Phase Three at a Glance
Total number. Of seats: 78
Seats occupied by BJP: 19
Seats occupied by JD (U): 24
Seats occupied by RJD: 20
Congressional seats: 10
Seats occupied by others: 05
.
