Joe Biden’s path to Electoral College victory widens as votes roll in

Biden edged out Trump in Wisconsin, one of the three “Blue Wall” states where vote counts moved in his favor as more were counted. His victory in Arizona, a state Trump won in 2016, gives him more room to breathe. Even without Pennsylvania, Biden could now reach the necessary 270 electoral votes if he can win Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Nevada, where he led by a very narrow margin early Wednesday.

Those states still have a declining but significant number of outstanding votes from absentee voters and large urban counties that tend to vote Democrats. Elections officials said it would be later Wednesday before they could finish counting votes for Wisconsin and Michigan, and Nevada will not resume counting absentee ballots until Thursday.

The deciding factor for Biden could end up being a single electoral vote from Nebraska’s second congressional district, one of the two states dividing its votes. Trump won that district in 2016, but Biden won it on Tuesday. Biden was also gaining traction in Georgia as votes came in from heavily Democratic urban centers.

Trump needs at least four of the following states to pass 270 electoral votes: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He won them all in 2016. If Biden wins two from Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, he will win.

There is a scenario, although it now seems less likely, in which the contest could be reduced to a single electoral vote, or even a tie. Maine also divides its votes by electoral districts, with one of its two districts still in play.

If Trump wins that vote, and loses Wisconsin and North Carolina, both Biden and Trump will have 269 electoral votes. In that case, Trump would likely win the runoff vote in the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets only one vote.