LONDON: Democratic candidate Joe Biden returned as a clear favorite to win the US presidential election in online betting markets Wednesday morning, a turnaround for President Donald Trump, who had been favored overnight to the morning.
The change, based on data from three probability aggregators, occurred after Biden surpassed Trump in the battlefield state of Wisconsin, with an estimated 89% of the votes counted there.
Britain-based exchange Smarkets was giving Biden a 78% chance, while New Zealand-based prediction market PredictIt had Biden at almost 80%. Trump’s chances at Smarkets were 21%, a massive drop of nearly 80% overnight.
“Taking the lead in Wisconsin could be the turning point with the Democrat now projected to win Nevada and Arizona, probably giving him the 270 electoral college votes he needs for victory,” said Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom.
Betfair punters were giving Biden a 66% chance of winning at breakfast on the East Coast.
Trump previously falsely claimed victory over Biden with millions of votes yet to be counted.
Biden, meanwhile, was pinning his hopes on the so-called “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that sent Trump to the White House in 2016, although it could take hours or days to finish counting.
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