It is winter again, the time when the air quality in the northern belt, from Punjab to West Bengal, becomes alarming. This winter, the hope was that the cities in this belt would be more breathable after months of restricted economic activity and vehicular traffic amid the coronavirus pandemic. But the data shows that there is hardly a breather. And with increased activity and the arrival of winter, air quality could deteriorate.
Nowhere is this problem so amplified as in Delhi. The wind patterns at this time cause the national capital to draw smoke from fires started by farmers in neighboring states to get rid of their crop residues and plant the next batch. Despite all the political noise and political action, so far 2020 is worse than the previous two years in the fire count. Since farmers started planting early this monsoon season, they are also phasing out earlier than usual.
Stubble burning usually begins around September 15. One measure of data on such fires is the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) suite from the US space agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). VIIRS captures all types of fires, including agricultural fires. Its spatial resolution can detect smaller fires, providing a more reliable estimate of fire perimeters. Between September 15 and October 22 this year, the number of fires in four states contiguous to Delhi (Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan) was the third highest in the last six years.
The number of fires in these four states has increased by 94% this year compared to the same period in 2019.
Managers were betting on a carrot-and-stick approach: banning stubble burning and subsidizing rented farm machinery to handle crop residues. It has not worked: it is a difficult problem to solve. First of all, the scale is too large. Last year, Punjab produced 20 million tons of rice and burned 9.8 million tons of waste. Haryana produced 7 million tons and burned 1.2 million tons. Second, farmers often try to reduce the time between two crops. And fires clear the land quickly.
To add to this, the coronavirus pandemic has created a labor shortage this year. Stubble burning requires less labor than alternative methods. A 30-day snapshot from VIIRS, covering the month through October 22, shows the extent of the increase in agricultural fires this year.
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Biomass burning accounts for 26% of Delhi’s pollution, according to a 2016 study by the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi on the sources of PM2.5. The other main sources are vehicle pollution, coal and fly ash, burning solid waste, and dust from the ground and roads. These combine with the environment to produce secondary particles, which then affect other parts of India.
In the week ending October 24, the Air Quality Index (AQI) was in the “poor” zone in 10 out of 18 selected Indian cities. In five of these cities, including Delhi, the AQI was worse than the corresponding period of 2019. Worryingly, air pollution levels are higher than a year ago, even in the lowest cities in India.
Many expected this year to be different in two ways. First, the pandemic dealt a severe blow to the economy, and India’s GDP is estimated to shrink by around 10% this financial year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Air quality had improved earlier this year as economic activity slowed during the shutdown. This prevented around 4,600 deaths in Delhi alone in August, an analysis by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air and The Economist showed.
Second, the hope was that governments would take stricter measures to combat pollution, as the combination of air pollution and the coronavirus could be even more fatal. According to the State of Global Air 2020, published by the Health Effects Institute, India recorded 980,000 deaths attributable to PM2.5 in 2019. A study conducted by Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health earlier this year linked the increase in deaths by covid in the US with air pollution. . Health professionals have warned that this could also be true for India.
Burning stubble is making air pollution worse, but it is not the only cause for concern. Economic activity returns. The IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, an indicator of manufacturing activity, has been expanding for two months in a row. In September, it recorded its highest value since January 2012.
Even the footfalls in transit stations are increasing. They are at the highest levels since the lockdown, indicating increased vehicle movement, Google mobility data shows.
While less economic activity can result in cleaner air, it is neither sustainable nor desirable: it hurts the poor and vulnerable more. Sustained efforts to reduce air pollution remain the need of the day.
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