Updated: October 26, 2020 9:22:47 am
President Donald Trump and former Vice President of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020, in Nashville, Tennessee (Jim Bourg / Pool via AP)
Much of the comment in India on the impact of the upcoming US presidential election has focused on what Donald Trump and Joe Biden have or have not said about Kashmir. However, notes Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution, that misses a crucial point: broader foreign policy decisions will have more significant implications for India.
“Particularly important will be how a second Trump administration or a Biden administration perceives and approaches China and, in a related way, the question of the role of the United States in the world. The outcome will depend not only on who wins in November, but also on the decisions the next US president makes on key personnel and policies. ” she affirms in his op-ed in The Indian Express.
For the Indian government, the Trump administration’s harsher view of China has been welcomed. Overall, it converges with India’s concerns about China’s rising actions and intentions. And it has made it easier, if not prodded, for the Trump administration to assign India a major role in its strategic framework, including through the free and open Indo-Pacific concept. This, in turn, has laid the groundwork for cooperation on defense and security, has encouraged Washington to manage differences with Delhi on trade, Russia, Iran and human rights, and has led to vocal American support. India in the current crisis with China.
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“However, there are aspects of President Trump’s approach to China that have caused consternation in Delhi,” she points out. There are questions about whether China’s competitive approach has enough presidential buy-in or is more the result of the preferences of certain Trump administration officials.
“If Trump wins, India will carefully consider three elements: whether Trump stays the course or turns around China again, which officials remain or join the administration, and how Beijing responds to a Trump victory.” she affirms.
Delhi will also closely follow China’s policy if Joe Biden wins.
Commentators have noted Biden’s recent and tougher view of China. He has called Xi “a bully” and has written about “the need to be tough on China.” His campaign has set out specific steps that he will take regarding Tibet and Taiwan, and spoke of a “genocide” in Xinjiang.
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“But what a Biden administration sees as the terms of strategic competition with China and how it might choose to combine cooperation will have implications for India.” writes Madan, who is the author of “Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations During the Cold War.”
In other words, New Delhi will have to analyze whether the Biden administration’s Asian policy stems from its China policy or vice versa.
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