Updated: October 25, 2020 11:55:09 am
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after voting at the Palm Beach County Main Library, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo: Evan Vucci)
With the final presidential debate behind them, and less than two weeks to go on November 3, US President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden are presenting their final arguments to American voters.
So far, although Biden has been dominating national opinion polls, the outcome of the main race is expected to be decided by key states on the battlefield, whose voters could decide whether Republicans or Democrats would rule the country for the next few years. four years.
Both Trump and Biden are focusing the rest of their campaigns on these ‘changing states’: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of these, the most changing state and one of particular importance to Trump is Florida. Without the Republicans winning it, pollsters predict an almost certain victory for the Democrats in the White House. But why is Florida so important to Trump?
Florida at the Electoral College
To win the US presidential election, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority in the electoral college – a group of voters from across the country who elect the country’s next president and vice president.
The electoral college has a total of 538 voters, distributed according to the number of seats each state has in the United States Congress. Crossing the halfway point, 270, is equivalent to winning the presidency.
California, the most populous state, has the highest number of electoral votes: 55. Texas is the second most influential state, with 38 voters. Florida and New York are tied for third with 29 voters each. 📣 Follow Express explained on Telegram
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after voting at the Palm Beach County Main Library, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo: Evan Vucci)
America’s Largest Wild Card State
Over the past few decades, a large number of states in the United States have consistently voted for the same political party in every presidential election. Among the top four states in the electoral college, California and New York are known to vote for the Democratic Party, while Texas prefers the Republican Party.
Unlike its large counterparts, Florida is an indecisive state and has not shown great loyalty to any political party in various election cycles. In fact, it has been called America’s “benchmark state” for accurately predicting the national mood. In fact, since 1928, the Sunshine State has only voted twice against the winner of the presidential race.
In the 2000 election, Florida’s kingship status was particularly in evidence, when the United States Supreme Court had to step in to resolve a dispute over the state’s vote count and effectively decide who would be the next president. The court voted in favor of Republican candidate George W Bush, who was deemed to have beaten Democrat Al Gore by 537 votes.
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Why is Florida central to Donald Trump in the 2020 US elections?
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points (almost 30 lakh votes), but won the presidency by securing 304 votes in the electoral college. Among the states that won, Florida was considered the most important, as it safely placed it above the 270 mark.
This year, the president faces a tougher challenge from Democratic nominee Joe Biden than he did four years ago from Hillary Clinton, opinion polls show.
So Florida this season is even more crucial for Trump to win, as his 29 votes may put him above the finish line should Biden switch to some of the smaller states that voted Republican in 2016.
In the 2016 election, Trump was able to surpass Clinton in Florida with a minimum majority of 1.2 percentage points. This year, election experts have almost ruled out Trump’s re-election unless he repeats his success in Florida.
2020 US Elections: What Can We Expect This Year?
As of October 25, Real Clear Politics has shown a small average lead of 1.5 percentage points for Biden in Florida. However, few experts are firmly predicting the status for the Democratic leader, given his volatile record.
In the 2018 midterm elections, while Democrats gained momentum nationally, Florida, albeit with slim margins, voted for the Republican Party in the races for state governor and the United States Senate. However, he brought down the Republican majority of the 27-member delegation from the state House of Representatives from 11-16 to 13-13.
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