While many governments are likely to celebrate the end of the most unconventional and sometimes chaotic American presidency of modern times, others will have reason to miss it. To the leaders of Turkey, North Korea and Israel, the ledger has been almost entirely positive. The removal of Trump would face them immediate challenges.
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The scorecard of countries like China has more nuances. Still, what the mostly authoritarian winners of Trump’s four years in office have in common is the fear that his departure means the return of a more conventional American foreign policy.
That could see the United States mending alliances and promoting the universality of values like democracy and human rights, or the fight against climate change. “This president embraces all the bullies in the world,” Trump’s opponent Joe Biden said at a recent city hall event, as he sought to highlight the political divide.
Kim jong un
No relationship with the United States changed more under Trump than that of North Korea. What began with mutual threats and insults turned into a sometimes strange love affair when Kim and Trump met three times and exchanged more than two dozen letters, showcasing their “mysteriously wonderful” chemistry.
Still, the radically different approach of the United States has also failed to ensure the denuclearization of North Korea. Kim unveiled a huge new ICBM on October 10 that appears capable of launching multiple nuclear warheads.
Biden has said he will not meet without preconditions, making any swift lifting of sanctions that have pushed North Korea’s economy into its worst recession in two decades less likely.
Mohammed bin Salman
Trump set the tone for his approach to international relations in Saudi Arabia, choosing Riyadh for his first overseas visit in 2017. He was greeted with a huge image of his own face projected onto the facade of the palatial hotel where his delegation was staying.
The Saudi crown prince made important breakthroughs, notably Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, his country’s deadly rival. Trump also offered personal support and vetoed congressional sanctions when MBS, as he is known, was besieged by allegations that he had ordered the 2018 assassination of prominent regime critic Jamal Khashoggi.
There have been disappointments for Saudi Arabia, in particular the failure of Trump to respond militarily after a 2019 attack on oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia that the United States blamed on Iran. Saudi leaders say they are confident they could navigate a transition to Biden. Still, with Trump gone, a more traditional US focus on human rights is likely to return and a door could be opened to revive the Iran deal.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
If anyone trusts Trump more than MBS for his political protection, it is the President of Turkey. Trump has stood virtually alone between Turkey and the imposition of congressional sanctions over Erdogan’s decision to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense missile system, despite being an ally of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Their personal link allowed Erdogan to persuade Trump to withdraw US troops from Kurdish areas in northern Syria so that Turkey could send its own forces to take control of the area. Trump made that decision without consulting the Pentagon or US allies in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, including the UK, France, and Kurdish fighters that Turkey considers terrorists.
With sanctions in place and Biden previously calling on the United States to support Turkish opposition parties, Erdogan may have more to lose from Trump’s departure.
Xi Jinping
Trump has been more aggressive toward China than any US president in recent memory, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and acting to restrict their access to key technologies. Yet Chinese officials have collectively said leaders would prefer Trump to stay.
Trump rocked the post-World War II alliance system that China sees as a constraint on its geopolitical ambitions – a considerable benefit. He also undermined the international stature of the United States by exiting agreements in pursuit of “America first” policies, creating opportunities for the Chinese president to fill the resulting leadership vacuum in everything from trade to climate change.
Beijing’s concern about Biden is that he would try to create a more coordinated international front to deal with China, while maintaining pressure on trade and technology. Still, China could benefit from a less emotional relationship with Washington if Trump loses, according to Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University. “Do people really want China and the United States to enter a cold war?”
Vladimir Putin
Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 elections produced a formal US investigation and a 448-page report. But somehow Putin won the jackpot. In office, Trump has questioned the value of NATO and even the status of countries like Germany as allies, weakening a transatlantic alliance that Russian and Soviet leaders since Joseph Stalin have sought to break.
There are many reasons to think that the trend would continue during a second Trump administration. However, Russia’s president achieved some of the more concrete achievements he desired, from lifting sanctions to progress on arms control. Russian officials see little prospect of a thaw, least of all under the Biden administration.
Instead of lamenting the anti-Russia mood, the Kremlin could try to change it, according to Fiona Hill, senior director of the National Security Council for European and Russian affairs until 2019. “They could stop the guys who are poisoning people correctly. , left and center, “said Hill, now at the Brookings Institute. “When they meet us, they can’t poke us in the eye. They could just stop doing all that. ”
Jair bolsonaro
For the president of Brazil, Trump is a political soulmate. As American opinion polls have tilted in favor of Biden, Bolsonaro has become increasingly concerned about the future of his ties to the White House, according to a senior cabinet member.
Since taking office in 2019, Bolsonaro has changed the Brazilian tradition of a decades-old equidistant foreign policy in favor of automatic alignment with the United States and its allies. In return, Trump lifted the ban on fresh meat imports, supported Brazil’s offer to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and signed agreements for cooperation in defense and space exploration.
Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo has said that Brazil would have no problems with a Biden administration, but that Bolsonaro’s environmental policies would face strong opposition. Biden has suggested that Brazil could face economic consequences if it does not stop deforestation in the Amazon.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Trump repeatedly broke with American precedent to push forward the Israeli leader’s nationalist agenda, recognizing Israeli sovereignty in the disputed Golan Heights and moving the American embassy to Jerusalem. Plans to annex parts of the Palestinian West Bank have been shelved, but could be revived in a second Trump term.
The real payoff came in September, when Trump negotiated normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but there has been a cost; Bipartisan support for Israel in Congress has eroded. Many Israelis fear their country will face increased scrutiny under the Biden administration, while the security establishment worries about the United States’ return to the Iran nuclear deal.
Andrzej Duda and Viktor Orban
Outsiders among the more liberal European heads of state, the leaders of Poland and Hungary have found comfort in Trump. In 2017, he chose Warsaw for a major speech in which he redefined the West in terms of conservative Christian values, validating Duda’s right-wing agenda, which he shares with Hungary’s Orban.
The Hungarian prime minister has openly endorsed Trump before the election, saying he does not want to see a return to the “moral imperialism” that a Democratic administration would bring to the White House.
The two men share Trump’s disdain for political correctness in ways that could cause friction with Biden. President Duda has called the LGBTQ + community “enemies” of Polish families. In September, Biden took to Twitter against Polish regions that had declared themselves “free from LGBT ideology.”
In his comment on Trump’s fondness for “bullies,” Biden singled out Hungary and Poland, along with post-Soviet Belarus, when he warned of the risks to NATO from the “rise of totalitarian regimes around the world.”
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