BEIJING: Donald trump He has frustrated and enraged China during a tumultuous first term, but Beijing may welcome his re-election as he scans the horizon for the decline of its rival superpower.
Relations are as cold as at any time since formal ties were established four decades ago, and China has warned it does not want to be dragged into a new one. “Cold War“with the United States.
Under his ‘America First’ banner, Trump has presented China as the greatest threat to America and global democracy.
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He launched a massive trade war that has cost China billions of dollars, harangued Chinese tech companies, and put all the blame on it. pandemic with Beijing.
But another Trump win in November may have its advantages for China, as President Xi Jinping seeks to cement his nation’s rise as a global superpower.
China’s leadership could have “the opportunity to advance its global position as a champion of globalization, multilateralism and international cooperation,” said Zhu Zhiqun, professor of political and international relations at Bucknell University.
Trump pulled the United States out of a sprawling Asia-Pacific trade and climate accords, slapped billions of dollars in tariffs on Chinese goods, and removed the United States from the World Health Organization at the height of a pandemic. world.
Where the United States has withdrawn, Xi has stepped forward.
He presented his country as the champion of free trade and a leader in the fight against climate change, and promised to share any possible Covid-19 vaccine with the poorest nations.
“A second term from Trump could give China more time to rise as a great power on the world stage,” Zhu said.
Philippe Le Corre, a China expert at the Harvard Kennedy School in the United States, agreed that an extension of Trump’s “America First” policies would be beneficial in the long run for Beijing.
“(It) cuts partially Washington away from its traditional allies, “he added, and that gave China room to maneuver.
China’s nationalists have openly cheered or booed Trump.
“You can make America eccentric and therefore hateful to the world,” Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a nationalist chest-pounding newspaper, warned in a tweet to the US president.
“You help promote unity in China.”
Trump is also lampooned on China’s heavily censored social media as ‘Jianguo’, which means “help build China.”
To be sure, Trump has inflicted economic and political pain on China.
“China has greatly lost its trade and technology plan,” said Beijing-based political analyst Hua Po.
In January, the United States and China signed an agreement that brought a partial truce in their trade war that forced Beijing to import an additional $ 200 billion in American goods over two years, from cars to machinery and from oil to agricultural products.
Washington has also aimed its weapons against Chinese tech companies it says pose security threats, launching future US operations of the video-sharing app. Tik Tok – owned by Chinese parent company Bytedance – in uncertainty.
Mobile giant Huawei is also on Trump’s target list.
The enmity also extends to defense and human rights, with Taiwan, Hong Kong and the treatment of China’s Uighur Muslim minority making waves in the United States.
But China may not get much relief in any of these areas if Trump loses to Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Beijing is concerned that Biden is likely to renew the US leadership on human rights, pressing China on the problems of the Uighurs, Tibet and freedom in Hong Kong.
“Biden is likely to be tougher than Trump on human rights issues in Xinjiang and Tibet,” said Zhu of Bucknell University.
And in technology and commerce, crucial flashpoints in the rivalry between the United States and China, it is unclear how much room a Biden White House would have to maneuver.
“Biden will inherit the tariffs and I doubt he will lift them unilaterally,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Beijing will probably have to give in to other US demands if it wants the tariffs to be lifted.”
China will also have to make a convincing case about data security if it wants to avoid more damaging bans for its tech companies.
Washington views Huawei, the world leader in 5G internet, as a serious security threat.
“Politically, it will be nearly impossible for Biden to reverse these policies,” Fallon said.
“Huawei has been on the US radar as a security threat even before the Trump presidency.”
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