Laxity during festivals or winter will increase new cases up to 26 lakh in a month, warns panel

If all protocols are met, the COVID-19 The pandemic can be brought under control early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by the end of February, says a committee of experts appointed by the Department of Science and Technology (DST).

The panel says that all activities can return to normal, with the rider that the protocols are strictly observed.

However, he cautioned that any laxity during the holiday season and into the coming winter can lead to a significant increase in cases, up to 26 lakh of cases in a month.

The panel fears that the festival and the winter season could cause an increase in the incidence of the infection. Mathematical calculations indicate that congregations and cool weather provide conditions conducive to the spread of infection.

However, it seems that it no longer makes sense to impose locks.

On June 1, the DST had constituted the committee comprised of eminent scientists and academics to develop a national supermodel for the progression of Covid-19 with a mandate to create an evidence-based mathematical model. The committee took input from various groups working on the domain in India and used it to analyze past events and future trajectories of the pandemic.

In briefing the media virtually on the panel’s observations, its chair, Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, said on Sunday that the supermodel is based on various parameters such as timing of closure, alternative emergency shutdown scenarios, the impact of migrant workers returning home, and the future course of the pandemic, including the impact of not following safety protocols.

The panel said new closures should not be imposed in a district and higher levels unless there is an imminent danger that health facilities will be overwhelmed.

The panel also said that the peak load of active cases would have touched 50 lakh in June, if India had waited until May to impose the lockdown. The peak of active cases occurred in late September at around 10 lakh. Furthermore, the early imposition of the blockade on March 24 had resulted in deaths of around one lakh so far, which would otherwise have reached around 10 lakh had the blockade been imposed in May, the panel said.

Key takeaways:

– The upcoming festival and winter seasons may increase susceptibility to infection.

– Relaxation in protective measures can lead to a significant increase: up to 26 lakh of infections in a month.

– District and higher level closures are not very effective now.

– All activities can be resumed as long as the proper security protocols are followed.

– If we all follow these protocols, the pandemic can be brought under control early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by the end of February.