A government-appointed committee has said that cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in India peaked in mid-September and that active cases can be largely contained by February according to mathematical models. if preventive guidelines are followed, even as a member of Niti Aayog. VK Paul said Sunday that the possibility of a second wave of infections in the winter cannot be ruled out.
The comments came on a day when Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said that community transmission of the disease was restricted to certain districts in some states, saying that “this is not happening across the country.”
For a month now, daily infections in India have declined steadily, the first time this has happened since the outbreak began in early March. For the week ending Saturday, India reported 63,025 new infections every day on average, a drop of around 33% from the peak recorded in mid-September, and the lowest this number has reached since mid-June.
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“Our predictions initially show that the number of cases was negligible around March, and then we went into this kind of exponential growth rate and then it started to moderate, and it had peaked somewhere in mid-September, and now it’s starting to stir. down, ”said M Vidyasagar, professor, IIT Hyderabad. He is the head of the government-appointed 10-member panel that carried out a study titled ‘Progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in India: Forecast and impacts of the lockdown’.
“The bottom line is that the pandemic has reached its peak; however, this is not a reason for us to relax because this pleasant downward trend will continue only if we continue with the protective measures, ”Vidyasagar added.
Professor Manindra Agrawal from IIT Kanpur said: “It appears that daily active cases which are around 800,000 currently will drop below 40,000 by the end of February if we continue to take safety measures.”
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The committee developed an evidence-based mathematical model for the progression of Covid-19. The ‘Covid-19 India National Supermodel’ was commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) to experts from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, IIT Hyderabad, Indian Institute of Science, Indian Statistical Institute, Christian Medical College, Institute National Epidemiology, Ministry of Defense, etc.
Paul, a member of Niti Aayog, told PTI on Sunday that the number of new cases and deaths from Covid-19 has decreased in the last three weeks as the spread of the pandemic has stabilized in most states.
Paul, who is also the head of a panel of experts coordinating efforts to tackle the pandemic in the country, said that with the onset of winter, countries in Europe are experiencing a resurgence of Covid-19 cases. “We cannot rule out (a second Covid-19 wave this winter in India). Things can happen and we are still learning about the virus, ”Paul said. He emphasized appropriate Covid-19 behavior during the festival season and winter.
The government-appointed panel of experts also predicted that without the national lockdown, deaths from Covid-19 in India would have exceeded 2.5 million. Currently, deaths from Covid-19 in India amount to just over 100,000.
“If India had waited until May to impose the blockade, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakh in June. Actually, the peak of active cases occurred in late September at around 10 lakh. At that time, we were much better equipped to handle the pandemic in terms of diagnostics and inventories of vital equipment, ”the panel said.
Epidemiologists also say the disease appears to have peaked in India. “India seems to have gone through the first peak. Although we should only be reviewing at the state level to understand the dynamics of transmission in different phases. With the onset of winter, vulnerable people who were previously safe may now become infected. We need to ensure that older age groups and people with comorbidities are protected. We have not touched baseline levels for the bear and still a large proportion of the population is susceptible, ”said Dr. Giridhara Babu, director of epidemiology at the Indian Institute of Public Health.
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Although the committee recommended that existing personal safety protocols should be continued to full measure to ensure that cases do not escalate again, it did not suggest imposing new closures at the district and state levels unless there was an imminent danger that healthcare facilities would be shut down. look overwhelmed. .
The Union Health Minister maintained an interaction with his followers on social networks about the sixth episode of “Sunday Samvaad”. “In different areas of various states, including West Bengal, community transmission of Covid-19 is expected to occur, especially in densely populated areas,” he said during the event.
“However, this is not happening across the country. Community broadcasting is limited to certain districts and occurs in a limited number of states, ”Vardhan said.
With PTI inputs
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