New Delhi:
A government-appointed committee has said that India has crossed the peak of the coronavirus and predicted that the epidemic could be brought under control early next year if all measures are followed. But the onset of winter and upcoming festivals can increase susceptibility to infection and laxity at this point can again lead to a spike. Relaxation of security measures can cause a significant increase. It can be as much as “up to 26 lakh of cases a month,” the committee said, adding that only 30 percent of the population have developed immunity so far.
The committee stressed that protection measures must continue. “If all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled early next year with a minimum of active cases by the end of February,” the panel concluded.
The total number of infections by the time the epidemic ends could be about 105 lakh (10.5 million). The current figure is 75 lakh.
In the absence of a lockdown in March, India’s total death toll could have surpassed 25 lakh in August this year, the committee said. Currently, the country has registered 1.14 lakhs of deaths.
However, locks are now undesirable and should be set only in narrow geographic areas. The country, the panel said, should now move towards the full resumption of activities.
There is some evidence that large gatherings cause rapid spread, the committee said, pointing to Kerala, where after the celebration of the Onam festival from August 22 to September 2, a sharp increase was observed on September 8. The probability of infection increased by 32% and the effectiveness of the medical response was reduced by 22% for Kerala in September, the committee said.
The committee was appointed to come up with a “national supermodel of India”, a mathematical model for Covid-19, which may shed light on the likely trajectory of the pandemic in India. Its members are from IIT and branches of the Indian Council for Medical Research, the country’s nodal body in the fight against coronavirus.
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