Already on track to overtake the United States with the world’s newest coronavirus infections, India is bracing for a surge in cases in the coming weeks, as it heads into its main holiday season with an economy free of virus restrictions .
Kerala’s recent experience, which was praised for its initial handling of the pandemic, indicates how quickly the situation may deteriorate. Infections reported there have increased fivefold since Onam’s 10-day harvest festival was held in late August, far exceeding the double increase in cases nationally during that time.
Still, cash-strapped state governments are reluctant to prevent people from venturing out during Durga Puja next week and Diwali in mid-November.
The holidays are celebrated with family reunions, bumper purchases, and gifts, from candy and snacks to clothing and cars, generating vital income for many people.
“We will probably have more starvation deaths if the rural migrant population who flock to the cities during the bidding and earn some money during the holiday is deprived of the opportunity,” said Subrata Mukherjee, a cabinet minister in the fourth state. more populated. from West Bengal, which has one of the highest coronavirus cases in India.
“With the rice planting and transplanting operations ended, a large rural population is out of any economic activity. Similarly, thousands of small traders hope to make some profit.”
West Bengal, where Trinamool’s ruling Congress is expected to face a tough challenge in next year’s BJP elections, has allowed 42% more Durga Puja community gatherings this year and doubled state funding for them.
Some doctors have accused politicians of undermining public health for fear of upsetting religious sentiments, while the Union Health Minister has warned that the situation will worsen if social distancing and other rules are not followed.
“There is no need to congregate in large numbers to test your faith or religion,” Union health minister Harsh Vardhan said in a broadcast last week. “If we do this, we may be in big trouble.”
India has reported more than 7.3 million coronavirus infections and more than 1,12,000 deaths, although the rate of increase has slowed in recent weeks.
But doctors fear that deaths could increase as bad air pollution in winter can worsen the breathing difficulties suffered by many Covid-19 patients.
If current trends continue, India will beat America’s infection count early next month.
‘VERY BAD TIME’
Kerala, one of the most developed and educated states in India, took five months to reach a count of 5,000 confirmed cases from the first in late January. Yet in just over three months since then, their infections have soared to 300,000, a large part of them from Onam.
“During the festival season, no matter how hard you try, there is a population mix, which is a multiplier of cases,” said Rajan Khobragade, Kerala’s chief health secretary. “People should be more responsible and willingly go the extra mile to follow the guidelines and stay protected.”
Officials from the state, which has some of the best healthcare facilities in India, said they were prepared to handle the increase. However, that may not be the case in the largest and poorest states like West Bengal.
“Bengal had been a thought leader in many spheres, but unfortunately the pre-puja trend is an indication of an impending hara-kiri that people are going to commit,” said Dr Abhijit Chowdhury, a member of the Covid-19 task force. of the state government. strength.
“The way that people, many of them educated, are ignoring COVID-19 security protocols is terrifying. We seem to be headed for a very bad time.”
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