The new war on Nagorno-Karabakh is conventional and fought by professional armed forces.
But this time, the high-tech weaponry of the 21st century has the ability to make this decades-old conflict more destructive than ever.
If official battlefield statistics are to be believed, the death toll is staggering. Azerbaijan has yet to confirm the death toll in the war.
But Armenia claimed to have killed or wounded 5,000 Azeris at the time of writing. Armenia has regularly updated its military corps count, which so far stands at almost 500. Azerbaijan has estimated that the actual number is many times higher.
Claims about territorial gains and losses inflicted on each side have proven difficult to verify. Not only have media teams limited access to front-line fighting, the aerial bombardment of civilian areas has also made their work extremely dangerous.
At least six journalists have been injured.
But the videos of the battlefield and the known military capabilities of the two warring sides suggest that Azerbaijan has the technological advantage, especially with its combat drones purchased from Israel and Turkey.
Some carry their own missiles. Others are guided “kamikaze” bombs.
It has not yet been established whether his destructive powers will be the deciding factor in the current conflict.
Digital billboards in Baku have broadcast high-resolution images of missiles hitting Armenian tanks and other military equipment, as well as groups of soldiers trapped in the open.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev saying Turkish television said that Azerbaijani-owned Turkish drones had “reduced” the number of Azeri casualties.
“These drones show the strength of Turkey. It also empowers us, ”he said.
In this photo taken from a video released by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry on October 1, 2020, Azerbaijani forces attack the artillery of the Armenian army. [Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry/AP]
Defense analysts said President Aliyev was referring to the Bayraktar TB2, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) manufactured by the Turkish defense company Baykar. One shipment was reportedly part of a defense agreement agreed in June.
The Bayraktar TB2 can operate at an altitude of 8,000 meters (about 26,250 feet), making it difficult to detect and can fly for up to 27 hours with a payload of four missiles.
“We have seen Bayraktar drones actively used in Syria and Libya by the Turkish air force against [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad and the general [Khalifa] Haftar army [in Libya]”Said Fuad Shahbaz, defense analyst at the Baku Center for Strategic Communications.
“Now, they have appeared in Azerbaijan very recently and are being actively used in Nagorno-Karabakh against the separatist regime.”
Another enemy UAV destroyed pic.twitter.com/lewb3fTW5i
– Shushan Stepanyan (@ShStepanyan) October 11, 2020
Rob Lee, a PhD candidate at University College London, said the use of TB2 has dramatically affected Armenian forces on the ground and their ability to reinforce and defend themselves.
“The TB2s initially targeted air defense systems. The ones we’ve seen destroyed are from the 1980s. I think the radars are struggling to detect these little UAVs.
“So the TB2s started chasing tanks, artillery and now, because they have passed through a succession of priority targets, we see them targeting squads of soldiers.”
The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone [File: Birol Bebek/AFP]
Azerbaijan’s rich defense spending has for years eclipsed that of Armenia, allowing it to buy advanced weapons systems, mainly from Russia, Israel and Turkey.
While Russia remains the main supplier of weapons to both countries, Israeli and Turkish drones and missile systems risk outdoing Armenia’s often outdated Russian hardware.
“Russia realized after 2016 that it had to start equipping Armenia with what it had been selling to Azerbaijan in order to rebalance the power dynamics,” Lee said.
That includes the Iskander M, a tactical ballistic missile system that is accurate to 10 meters (33 feet), has a range of up to 500 km (311 miles), and is highly effective at avoiding air defenses.
Until now, it has not been used.
People wearing masks to help protect against the spread of the coronavirus walk past a billboard in support of Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Ankara, Turkey [Burhan Ozbilici/AP]
But Shahbaz said that the Armenian forces finally have to grapple with Azerbaijan’s numerical supremacy.
“The separatist regime is well informed about a country with a population of 10 million people, 70,000 active military personnel and a reserve army of 300,000 personnel. So they can’t hold out for long. “
The precise hit destroyed the ENY units preparing for the night ATK. pic.twitter.com/6HyOmEI0A4
– MOD from Azerbaijan (@wwwmodgovaz) October 11, 2020
If the Armenian forces in Nagorno Karabakh are outnumbered and technologically outnumbered, they have a major advantage: geography.
An Azeri land invasion would have to overcome well-fortified defensive positions occupying high ground in mountainous territory.
Richard Giragosian of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies believed that Azerbaijan had already paid a price in terms of military equipment and personnel.
“The Azeri offensive was so broad in scale across the broad line of contact that their initial deployment of forces was dispersed and logistically extended making them more vulnerable to counterattack.”
An unexploded BM-30 Smerch missile is seen on the outskirts of Stepanakert, a main city in Nagorno-Karabakh, on October 12, 2020. [Aris Messinis/AFP]
Since occupying Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding Azeri territories before the 1994 ceasefire, Armenian forces have had years to prepare their defenses.
“It has pre-planned targets, exact coordinates, and grids,” Lee said. “They know how to mark so that the first mortar or artillery round they fire is right on target.”
The Karabakh forces are also likely to have fortified secondary positions equipped with weapons that they can call upon.
“Even when you have these small achievements that Azerbaijan has, it is difficult to exploit them. Often in a war, when you break a line, you can exploit that weakness and take back a large amount of territory. But in Karabakh it is difficult because there are only a couple of roads. If you take the first vehicle, the others cannot dodge them. “
But for now, the status quo appears to be in favor of Azerbaijan, Lee said.
“The TB2s are just sitting in the air and waiting for targets of opportunity. Ultimately, the Armenians do not have a good plan to destroy them. They have to do something or Azerbaijan will keep hitting them. “
The Republic of Armenia, which supplies weapons and recruits to the forces in Karabakh, possesses a limited number of modern Russian “Tor-M2KM” air defense missile systems that are capable of finding and shooting down TB2.
The remains of an unmanned aerial vehicle are displayed on the outskirts of Stepanakert during the military conflict over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, October 11, 2020 [Stringer/Reuters]
“You want to send them to Karabakh from Armenia, where they will probably lose some? I’m not sure Armenia is willing to do that yet, ”Lee said.
Without an effective defense against Azerbaijan’s apparent air supremacy, TB2’s attacks are likely to continue to affect Armenian manpower and morale.
“You don’t know where the shots are coming from, it’s the invisible enemy,” Giragosian said.
“There is a sci-fi movie effect. And not just military: the political use of attacks against the civilian population, infrastructure and the use of cluster bombs, as documented by Amnesty International, undermines the morale of political leaders. It is a psychological war that attacks the will to fight ”.
In this photo taken from a video released by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry on October 2, 2020, Azerbaijani forces attack the Armenian army camp during the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. [Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry via AP]
But Azerbaijan’s military advantage can still be undermined by its professionalism.
“I have seen some videos of the Azerbaijani forces not operating in a very tactically competent manner,” Lee said.
“In general, the Azeri army is not considered to be very capable, with promotions based on political connections. Even if the Azeris are using high-tech equipment, the Armenians can still defeat them if their tactics and techniques are not used correctly. “
Search and rescue teams carry the body of a victim away from the scene of the explosion hit by a rocket during the fighting in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the city of Ganja, Azerbaijan, 11 October 2020 [Umit Bektas/Reuters]
Both sides have turned to trade in missiles and rockets across the line of contact and deep into civilian cities and towns, increasing the number of civilian casualties.
But now there may be signs of a reduction in fighting to coincide with the recent humanitarian ceasefire agreed in Moscow and the expected start of winter.
“We need Azerbaijan to get to a point where they are satisfied that they have enough territory and we need Turkey to stop pressuring Aliyev to move forward,” Giragosian said. “Russia has stood out for its unusual absence and passivity. The real burden falls on Azerbaijan to make a calculation. Do they keep fighting, secure even more territory, or mitigate risk and stop now? “
The high-resolution images that the TB2s have captured of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and soldiers killed by precision drone strikes may have already provided Azerbaijan with the perception of victory it needs.
“Even if you are not succeeding on the battlefield, you can still show strikes, show this to your people and the international community and say, ‘Look: we have a capable army, don’t mess with us,'” he said. Leeward.
Fuad Shahbaz said: “Nobody thinks that this war can go on for several months. Regional players like Russia and Turkey, and to some extent Iran, are not interested in further destabilizing the region. Azerbaijan will probably seek to ‘liberate’ itself as much as possible from the separatist regime in order to restart peace negotiations ”.
For now, however, the words of the President of Azerbaijan offer the clearest indication of the country’s intentions.
“They will go to Khankendi (Stepanakert) and they will reoccupy the entire territory. This is the official statement of the president. The Jabrayil district was withdrawn. Therefore, it is quite possible that Azerbaijan could regain control of Khankendi and turn the situation quickly in its favor. Azerbaijan has the resources for that, financially and technically. They still have significant resources. “
