Bhopal: Although the by-elections in Madhya Pradesh have not received as much attention as the assembly elections in Bihar, they are equally important. There are 28 constituencies heading for early elections on November 3, the largest in the state, which will decide whether Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who came to power through the back door, will remain in the chair.
By-elections were necessary after the fall of the congressional government in the state when 22 of its MLA withdrew with Jyotiraditya Scindia, resigned their seats in the assembly, and joined the BJP.
The Scindia rebellion happened just as the coronavirus outbreak was getting worse in India in mid-March. It was clear that the personal enmity between then-Prime Minister Kamal Nath and Scindia was the reason why the latter left Congress.
Kamal Nath has made the by-elections a vote on the “betrayal” of the rebels, who according to him abandoned the mandate of the people and sold it to the highest bidder. He has even been in Jhansi at the head of a yatra to declare that the Scindias have historically betrayed the people as they did the Rani of Jhansi. In order not to be left behind, Scindia claimed that Kamal Nath “betrayed” the people by failing to fulfill a promise to give up agricultural loans.
Regardless of what turn the leaders are trying to take, there is a feeling among the electorate that each of the 25 MLA who defected to the BJP since then received millions of rupees to do so. Tulsiram Silawat and Govind Singh Rajput, who were ministers in Kamal Nath’s cabinet, are seen as the main motivators and beneficiaries of this “horse exchange.”
The arithmetic of the poll is in favor of the BJP. The BJP currently has 107 MLAs and Congress 88. In addition, there are four independent MLAs, two SPs and one BSP. The BJP has to effectively win only five of the 28 seats at stake to retain power, assuming it receives the support of some of the MLA who do not belong to Congress or the BJP.
Congress faces a tough task and will have to win all 28 seats to reach 116, half the way. He will have to win at least 21 for him to form a coalition, which the BJP with its vast resources will not allow in any case.
BJP leader Jyotiraditya Scindia is greeted by his supporters upon his arrival at Bhopal airport on Thursday, March 12, 2020. Photo: PTI
Many battles
The by-elections will also see various leaders fighting each other.
The first among them are Kamal Nath and Scindia. Then the most crucial between Scindia and Digvijay Singh, as the latter believed to have pushed the former down in Congress. Both belong to the northern belt and exert influence over roughly the same territory. There are 34 seats in the Gwalior-Chambal region, which both aspire to control. In 2018, Congress won 27 of these seats, largely due to overwhelming opposition to the SC / ST bill brought by the BJP in parliament. Voters in the Schedule Caste communities were victorious in at least 16 of the 27 seats won by Congress.
In the Gwalior-Chambal region, 16 seats are up for grabs in the by-elections and the BJP has cleverly left Scindia to secure them. Although she has considerable influence, the BSP denies it and, traditionally, the Scindia have bowed to Mayawati and associated with her. The BSP has never put forward a candidate against the Scindias from its strongholds of Gwalior, Morena and Guna, or at best put up a friendly fight to prevent the BJP from poaching.
But since Scindia is now with the BJP, it remains to be seen what Mayawati’s strategy is. The BSP has already announced candidates for eight seats in the north, which it has won in the past.
For Digvijay, who captured the first Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh at Scindia’s expense and enraged the latter, it is time to prove that he is the undisputed leader in the north. He has already groomed his son Jaivardhan and controls almost all the satraps and members of the ancient royal families in the region, from KP Singh to Gobind Singh and Priyavrat.
Kamal Nath with Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijay Singh. Photo: PTI / Archives
Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar, who is also from Gwalior, is eager to return to Parliament as a possible prime ministerial candidate. Tomar does not want Scindia’s presence to undermine her importance to the BJP in the future.
So a complex structure is at stake in the 16 seats in the north and it will hurt Scindia if it does not sweep the region.
Chouhan under threat, but has achievable goals
The other war is being waged by Shivraj Singh Chouhan, alone. He escaped the investigations into the Vyapam scam by playing with Kamal Nath when the latter was in power. It is believed that he even helped the Congressional CM win two abstentions from the BJP MLAs when Nath faced a vote of confidence.
Kamal Nath totally misjudged Chouhan’s apparent camaraderie and did not proceed with the many corruption cases against the BJP leader and his associates, which was a key promise that Congress made to the people.
When the opportunity arose, Chouhan was happy to usurp the prime minister’s post. He is believed to have played a key role in overseeing the MLA’s defection from Congress and in their accommodation in a Bengaluru hotel.
The goals Chouhan must achieve are relatively easier. A miserable performance in which he loses 21 seats in Congress, even if his government does not fall, will be seen as a personal loss. The BJP has been forced to deploy the 25 rebels in Congress and this is totally against the party tide in the state. It has left top leaders, and their supporters, who lost to former congressional leaders in the 2018 assembly elections feeling hollow. The first among them are Jaibhan Singh Pavaiyya, Ajay Bishnoi, Bhanwar Singh Shekhawat and Mudit Shejwar, who will be forced to support the candidates who defeated them.
It is more or less clear that the central leadership of the BJP does not hold Chouhan’s managerial skills in high regard. His handling of the coronavirus crisis and the state of law and order since he took office in March has come under severe criticism within the party.
It is quite possible that the BJP will replace him with Tomar at the earliest opportunity, but if Chouhan manages to put on a credible performance, winning at least half of the 28 seats, then his political skills will give him a chance to serve his term.
Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan with Kamal Nath in Bhopal. Photo: Twitter / @ ChouhanShivraj
To help him, he has former Congressional stalwarts like Bisahu Lal Singh from the Shahdol region, who has been a member of Congress eight times. Kamal Nath denied him a cabinet post, and although he is not part of the Scindia camp, he also left the big party. Others who have the money factor and the possibility of winning are Tulsi Silawat and Govind Singh Rajput. Both will cease to be ministers in the Chouhan government on October 21, as their six-month term without being a member of the assembly will end two weeks before the elections.
The internal assessment of the BJP currently suggests that the party will win only five seats. But Congress should not be complacent, as this could well be misdirection. Even if Congress wins the other 23 seats, it still won’t be able to form the government without the help of the independent MLA, SP and BSP. That’s a tall order as the party needs a clean sweep to put an end to all doubts. For the BJP, wasting those opportunities shouldn’t be difficult.
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