India, with its population of 1.3 billion people, has the second highest number of coronavirus cases in the world, now more than seven million, but there are far fewer deaths than other severely affected countries.
The figures have baffled experts, with explanations ranging from the young population to the immunity given by other endemic viral diseases and underreporting.
Here are some of the questions and theories raised by India’s pandemic statistics:
– What are the figures? –
India said on Sunday that there had been 108,334 deaths from Covid-19 since the first death was reported in mid-March.
The world’s second-most populous nation has the lowest number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases (the observed fatality rate) among the 20 worst-affected nations at 1.5 percent, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
By comparison, the United States, the most infected country, has a 2.8 percent death rate. The number of deaths in India per 100,000 inhabitants is 7.73, compared to 64.74 in the United States.
– Younger population –
Older people suffering from diseases such as diabetes and heart disease have become a particular target of the pandemic, but India has a young population with an average age of 28.4 years, according to the World Population Outlook report by the UN.
By comparison, France, which has reported nearly 700,000 cases and more than 32,000 deaths for a death rate of 4.7 percent, has a median age of 42.3 years.
– Late start, strict closure –
The Indian government says the first infection was detected on January 30, with figures surpassing 100 in mid-March.
At that time, the epidemic was already raging in Europe. Italy had reported more than 24,000 infections and nearly 2,000 deaths, while France recorded nearly 5,500 cases and around 150 deaths.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a nationwide shutdown starting on March 25 that severely limited the movement. That gave India time to prepare for the pandemic, while experts say the strict lockdown may have helped doctors learn from experiences in other countries.
“Many of the treatment protocols were much better stabilized (at the time), either by the use of oxygen or the use of the ICU,” Anand Krishnan, professor of community medicine at the Institute of Medical Sciences of the United States, told AFP. India in New Delhi.
– Possible immunity –
Virologist T. Jacob John and other experts told AFP that other viral diseases such as dengue, which is endemic in India, may have given the population some antibody protection against the coronavirus.
Others say it is also plausible that exposure to other milder coronaviruses could give some cross-immunity. But all the experts say more research is needed in this line of defense.
– Insufficient count –
India no longer counts all deaths. The problem is most acute in rural areas where 70 percent of the population lives. Many rural deaths are not recorded unless the person has been in a hospital.
This has been accentuated during the coronavirus. In many cities, the counts in municipal governments and in cemeteries and crematoria do not match. Activists accuse some states of deliberately blaming other conditions for the Covid-19 deaths.
“Our poor routine death surveillance system … misses many deaths in the first place,” Bangalore community medicine expert Hemant Shewade told AFP. He estimates that only one in five deaths is registered with a cause.
Shewade, who has been analyzing India’s official toll data, said that many suspicious deaths from Covid-19 were not being recorded.
Government serosurveys, which test blood for antibodies to estimate how many have fought the virus, indicate that ten times the official number of people may have already been infected, meaning that many deaths may not have occurred. informed, he added.
Meanwhile, in some cases, the coronavirus may not be listed as the cause of death for patients with other medical conditions.
– How to increase accuracy –
Experts say greater toll accuracy is possible if more tests are performed, deaths are better recorded and post-mortem examinations are performed on suspected victims.
Monitoring excess mortality, the number of deaths above the “normal” figure, as well as deaths at home could also shed some light on the actual number of victims, Shewade said.
Mumbai, the worst-hit city in the country, saw an excess of 13,000 deaths between March and July compared to the same period last year, double the virus deaths reported at the time, the Indian Express reported.
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