The gigantic new missile North Korea displayed at a military parade is an explicit threat to US defenses and an implicit challenge to both the current US president and the next, analysts say, warning that Pyongyang could test the weapon next year. .
Leader Kim Jong Un watched the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) pass through Kim Il Sung Square, named after his grandfather, in Pyongyang at the climax of an unprecedented nighttime parade on Saturday.
A consensus quickly emerged among analysts that it was the world’s largest mobile liquid-fueled missile and was most likely designed to carry multiple warheads on independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies said it was “clearly destined to overwhelm America’s missile defense system in Alaska.”
It was “much cheaper for North Korea to add warheads than for the United States to add interceptors,” he added on Twitter.
If the ICBM carried three or four warheads, he explained, the United States would have to spend about $ 1 billion on 12-16 interceptors for each missile.
“At that cost, I’m pretty sure North Korea can add warheads faster than we can add interceptors.”
The missile was estimated to be 24 meters long and 2.5 meters in diameter, and specialist Markus Schiller said it was large enough to carry 100 tons of fuel, which would take hours to load.
It was so big and heavy that it was practically unusable, he added: “You can’t move this thing with fuel and you can’t fill it up at the launch site.
“This makes absolutely no sense, except for threat equation games, like sending the message of ‘now we have a mobile ICBM with MIRV, be very scared.’
North Korean observers regularly warn that the devices Pyongyang displays at its shows may be mock-ups or models, and there is no proof that they work until they are tested.
But the missile was carried on an enormous 11-axis transporter-erector-launcher never seen before, much larger than the eight-axis Chinese-made vehicles the North has used so far.
“The truck can be a scarier story than the missile,” said Melissa Hanham of the Open Nuclear Network.
“If the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea produces its own chassis indigenously, then there are fewer limitations on the number of ICBMs they can launch.”
– Red lines –
Shortly before his inauguration in 2017, Donald Trump tweeted that North Korea developed a weapon capable of reaching parts of the US.
He spent the first year of his presidency, in which North Korea launched an ICBM with the range to do just that, in an ever-increasing war of words with Kim before an extraordinary diplomatic bromance developed between them.
But nuclear negotiations have stalled since the collapse of its Hanoi summit earlier last year on sanctions relief and what the North would be willing to give up in return.
The ICBM was proof that North Korea had continued to develop its arsenal throughout the diplomatic process, analysts said, and gave Pyongyang added weight to demand a return to the negotiating table.
The show was aimed at the next administration, whoever headed it after next month’s presidential election, said Suzanne DiMaggio of the Carnegie Endowment.
“Kim conveyed – and demonstrated – that North Korea’s nuclear deterrent is at its strongest,” he said. His key messages: There is no viable military option against us. Deal with us on this basis. “
More than 12 hours after the end of the parade aired on North Korea’s state television, Trump had yet to tweet about it, nor had his Democratic rival Joe Biden.
Trump has made much of Kim’s promise not to conduct any more ICBMs or nuclear tests, and Shin Beom-chul of the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy said that by showing the missile rather than launching it, Pyongyang failed to cross. its red. lines.
“But it also indicates that North Korea could launch a pitch if Trump is re-elected and ignores the North Korean issue,” he told AFP, adding: “If Biden is elected and he doesn’t listen to North Korea, it will”. take a throw “.
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