North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to hold his largest military parade in at least two years and display a nuclear arsenal that poses one of the most daunting security challenges for the winner of the US presidential election.
The event, which is part of Saturday’s festivities to mark the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, could showcase the “new strategic weapon” that Kim promised to unveil earlier this year. Any missile designed to hit American targets would underscore how North Korea remains a nuclear threat to the United States as President Donald Trump prepares to defend his record against Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the presidential election.
South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook told parliament in Seoul on Wednesday that Pyongyang was preparing for a “military show of force involving its strategic weapons.” While satellite imagery has shown North Korea gathering troops and equipment for months for a grand parade, it is unclear when the event will occur and how much of the secret state it will decide to share with the outside world.
Here are five things to keep in mind:
1. Newer and better ICBM
One of the most alarming items North Korea could launch is an ICBM that has solid fuel technology. Such a weapon would be faster to launch than Kim’s current liquid-fuel models, giving the United States less time to destroy it on the platform or prepare to intercept it mid-air.
Although North Korea has not fired an ICBM since November 2017, last year it conducted a long-term test of a new engine and introduced a variety of shorter-range solid-fuel rockets. The missile tips can also show whether Kim has developed the ability to put multiple warheads on a single rocket. Such achievements would deal the biggest blow to date to Trump’s claim that his unprecedented summits with Kim in 2018 and 2019 had ensured that North Korea was “no longer a nuclear threat.”
Ankit Panda, Stanton’s senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said North Korea has often unveiled strategic weapons systems at the ruling party’s big milestones. “This weekend’s 75th anniversary may be an opportune time for North Korea to unveil a new ICBM,” he said.
2. Missile trucks
One of the less conspicuous but most crucial parts of North Korea’s nuclear program is the transporter rig launchers, or TELs. These are mobile launch pads that can be hidden in places like caves and under bridges and deployed quickly in case of attack.
With enough TEL, North Korea can demonstrate its ability to launch a first attack and still have enough reserve for a second volley. Kim has tried to build more TELs at home and break his long dependence on truck imports from places like China. The more shafts North Korea can put on a TEL, the greater the missiles it can launch. The more trucks you have with tank tracks, the more places you can send them.
3. Submarine missiles
North Korea has also been developing a new missile designed to be launched from a submarine, a necessary step to make Kim’s fleet a credible nuclear threat. A year ago, it launched a solid-fuel Pukguksong-3 missile from an underwater platform, demonstrating an estimated maximum range of about 1,900 kilometers (1,200 miles).
This is the most advanced solid-fuel missile the Kim regime has ever launched and if the Pukguksong-3 rolled down a TEL, it would represent a new strategic weapon that could launch a nuclear warhead across all of South Korea and most of Japan.
4. Diplomatic messaging
While these parades are primarily intended to stoke national pride and reaffirm support for the Kim regime, they can also provide a platform to send diplomatic messages to your adversaries. Kim can give a speech or leave the bombastic rhetoric in the hands of his generals or state media.
Such statements will be monitored by direct threats to Japan, South Korea, and, of course, the United States. North Korea has indicated in recent months that Kim expects more from Washington than a good relationship with Trump, and just before the US election would be a good idea. Time to drive that one home. Kim has been pushing for a nuclear deal that would relieve him of international sanctions without giving up too much of his weapons program.
5. Expanding the Arsenal
The parade can also showcase Kim’s growing arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles. The regime has tested more than 30 of them since 2019. These include the nuclear-capable hypersonic KN-23 that can strike all of South Korea, including US forces stationed south of Seoul, in two minutes. It has also launched short-range KN-25 missiles designed to be fired in rapid succession from a single launcher and overwhelm interceptors.
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