Delhi is likely to report around 15,000 Covid-19 cases a day in winter due to the prevalence of respiratory illnesses during this season that make the symptoms of the disease worse, the National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) warned. More patients with severe symptoms from other states are also expected to come to the national capital for treatment during this period, he said.
At its peak, the average number of Covid-19 cases in seven days was 4,119, on September 19.
“The winter months exacerbating respiratory illnesses … Patients may come from outside Delhi in large numbers … Patients coming from distant areas are likely to be more serious. Also, with festival-related gatherings, there could be a sudden spike in cases. Therefore, it is recommended that Delhi prepare for a daily increase of approximately 15,000 positive cases and arrange for hospital admissions of patients with moderate and severe illnesses amounting to approximately 20% of this increase, ”the NCDC said in a document. related to the revised Covid-19 Strategy for Delhi.
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The document has been drafted based on the recommendations of a group of experts led by Dr. VK Paul of Niti Aayog to help formulate a revised strategy for the management of Covid-19 in Delhi.
He has recommended that the Delhi government engage with community leaders, organizers, etc., to ensure that festivals like Durga Puja, Dussehra and Chhath are low-key with little or no gathering.
The document said that containment zones should be limited to places like resettlement colonies and slums, and contact tracing activities should be streamlined and districts should follow the clues provided by their own surveillance rather than simply pursuing targets when it comes to of tests.
The Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) builds on these recommendations for a new Covid-19 management strategy for the capital.
On September 18, Lieutenant Governor (LG) Anil Baijal asked the DDMA to draft a new strategy, as Delhi witnessed too many ups and downs on the Covid-19 chart since June 26, when a plan, said a senior government official who did not. wants to be identified.
The DDMA is chaired by Baijal and its vice president is Prime Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Dr. Paul leads separate advisory committees for both the central government and the DDMA.
The DDMA is scheduled to draft its strategy and present it to LG next Tuesday, when the next authority meeting is scheduled, the senior official said.
The official said these recommendations were sent to the offices of LG, Prime Minister and Chief Secretary Vijay Dev and discussed with district magistrates earlier this week.
Senior officials in LG’s office had no comment.
A spokesman for the Delhi government declined to comment on the issue.
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The document says that cases are being reported in all areas of all districts and therefore the existing buffer zone strategy should be reviewed. “The formation of new buffer zones could be restricted only to very dense localities like resettlement colonies and JJ slum / conglomerate areas … For planned colonies, large apartments, localities governed by RWA (Resident Welfare Association), the micro-containment strategy the zones or the isolation of the houses can continue ”, he said.
“The proportion of active cases in home isolation is 50-60%, which constitutes the highest proportion of active cases in Delhi. Home isolation is also seen in densely populated colonies. With the number of cases in the thousands, strict monitoring of movement restriction of all cases in home isolation, especially in densely populated areas, is challenging and perhaps one of the reasons for the spread of the infection. “
It has recommended that guidelines for the selection of cases to undergo home isolation be strictly followed and that all symptomatic positive cases reported in densely populated areas should be isolated only at Covid care centers to ensure optimal utilization of these facilities.
He added that each case of home isolation needs to be better monitored.
On contact tracing, the document suggested that government policy can be “streamlined” further. “Contact tracing could be restricted to forwarding contact tracing only – immediate family contacts, neighborhood contacts, and close workplace contacts should be tracked and tested according to ICMR guidelines as a priority.”
He said the government’s current policy on testing was insufficient when it came to containment zones, and recommended scaling up testing and testing to the district level based on surveillance findings rather than pursuing targets. “Criteria for scaling up testing should be based on positivity in each district (preferably district) relative to the total number of samples tested,” he said.
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