Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has gained traction in the betting markets over President Donald Trump following his first debate of the 2020 US election campaign, two betting market aggregators said.
Bettors on Britain’s Smarkets exchange give Biden a 63% chance of winning the November 3 election, up from 55% before the heated debate. Republican Trump’s chances are unchanged at 43%.
“It was clearly about personalities rather than content,” Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Thursday. People betting on how various states would vote didn’t learn anything new, he said.
On the UK-based Betfair Exchange, Biden’s odds improved to 60% after the debate, down from 56%, while Trump’s odds worsened to 40% from 43% before the debate.
“Biden is presenting himself in a very different way than Hillary Clinton, he is emphasizing her working class and blue-collar credentials and emphasizing the class aspect that is Scranton versus Park Avenue,” Betfair spokesman Darren Hughes said Wednesday in reference. to Trump’s 2016. rival.
Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and the moderator in their meeting Tuesday night, with Trump questioning Biden’s intelligence and Biden calling Trump a racist, a liar, and the worst president in history.
Smarkets odds give Democrats a 60% chance of winning both popular and electoral college votes.
At London-based Ladbrokes Coral Group, bettors gave a 30% chance of a repeat 2016 when Trump lost the popular vote but won the state-by-state Electoral College vote deciding the winner.
“There are a lot of players who have very unrealistic expectations of Trump,” said Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes Coral at GMF on Tuesday.
“I think ‘Shy Trumpers’ is one of the main reasons people are prepared to back Trump with very low odds. But I’m very skeptical.”
Reuters / Ipsos polls before the debate showed that 51% of likely voters back Biden, while 42% said they would vote for Trump, and the rest undecided.
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